GDP came wors than expected, what holded me away from trading. release brought decrease of price on EU GU and EJ pairs, but soon they just turn out to be little corrective moves.

stability of USDJPY just ensured me in my opinion about best stratgy for FOMC release, that was bet o volatility by buing options both directions.

Now on daily charts you can easily spot breakouts of top channel trendlines. They may be sigals of trend change on my favourite pairs, but to say so I need to wait for retracement first.

For now I have no plain strategy what to do next, but certainly sooner or later I will point out what hints am I looking for in price action or market data to predict next market movement.

Now it's good to stay away as both directions of move are equally possible.

 

As I mentioned yesterday I find it quite hard to predict, whether EURUSD will keep it's channel, or does it establish a new uptrend.

In spite of uncertainty there is some opportunity in front, which comes with FOMC statement with interest rate. Whatever will happen There must be some high volatility action either up or down.

My strategy for today will be definitely bet on that volatility, however as I'm not sure about direction, it's gonna be some option trading [I will buy some cheap put and call option short before release just to sell both when price will show 50 points spike, hopefully to obtain 1:2 Risk-Reward ratio. However If at the time of my transaction price will be testing top channel line [coincident with pivot S2 point] I see a big chance that keep with my option till the end of a day may be even more profitable.


There is also quarterly GDP release that may bring some nice price action. Personally I would be more interested in long position on good news than in short on bed.

First entry, just to show you my general idea is about recent EURUSD price action. Of course everyone can be smart now as it already happen :)

Here's some picture of last month:

There is nice channel that could have been easily spotted on a daily chart, bears were in the air, however there was one "but" there was no reason for price to go down on Monday 27.04 - where vertical line is placed (or maybe there was?).

Unexpected move [20:00 on a 30M chart] brought me to thought, that the one who sold all that euros may need his money back, so today I felt strong tension to not take short anymore, but rather wait for spike. As you can see I was kept in uncertainty till beginning of American session but finally proven to be right :)

To be honest it was even better then I expected, note that 5pm on this chart was the time when US consumer confidence (nearly 10 points better than expected) was released - this move is for me reason to give up 1.29 target and stay away from market.

Hope that it's clear what am I trying to snip. Any comments or questions, just ad in comments.