2010-06-30 2:38 GMT +1

USD and JPY are gaining across the board, charts looks like a beginning of some apocalyptic scenario.
I tried to long GU today, but it turned out to be to early, however GBP still holds it's strong position among currencies.

In spite of terrible general situation I still believe in turn positive soon.

I have no specific types for tomorrow. Mostly my strategy will be to stay aside until some new 100% setup will show up.

2010-06-29 15:10 GMT +1

I would say not very promising but may hold due to fundamental circumstances GU 8H pinbar up.
First target for this trade is around 1.5124 [key resistance there that has a big chance to not to hold.

And certainly 1/3 of position should be left for longer run.

2010-06-28 23:12 GMT +1

I don't see asetup on a daily charts, but USDJPY and CADJPY are good candidates for turn up. It's not a setup on any of those pairs, but if one occure on a 4H chart tomorrow I will possibly trade it.

2010-06-28 19:27 GMT +1

I see quite promising long setup on UJ 4H candle, and not that promising [but still interesting on CADJPY 4H candle.

2010-06-28 12:22 GMT +1

There is nothing I would consider as a good setup, but I see some hints that if GU will fall to 1.5011 it may freely fall much lower. It's not a trade, It's a demo-trade I will possibly take, but I write it here for sake of knowing what I was thinking.

saturday 2010-06-26 17:03 GMT +1

Not much to trade this week, therefore no much comments on my blog.
Here are a few thoughts on daily and weekly charts:


From a daily point of view, GBP still in it's rising mode, In my opinion this pair needs desperately some retracement, however I admit that it may not happen this week yet [but certainly we can expect at least on falling day this week]

Euro is trying to fight its way up, and there are some hints that it may finally manage it. If it will happen UJ will probably stuck in range between 88 and 95, and DOW will start to gain.

Of course this would be the best scenario and I give it 40%.


From weekly point of view:
1.24 to 1.25 is a bunch of key resistance levels, so if EU will work above 1.25 way up is wide open for this pair, especially if GU retrace in a meantime, so it can gain freely.

EURJPY is in quite a bad shape now, and this may be an obstacle on a way up for Euro in general.

Gold and DOW will be for me heroes of a week, I will rather no trade them, but their behaviour is likely to trigger trend change for Euro and general market sentiment.

So still no setups, but there is certainly direction where to aim.

2010-06-24 23:49 GMT +1

Daily:

GU - pinbar down off 1.5, as I said this pair needs one more day of falls, I would give it room to 1.48 if break below 1.49

EU - last three daily bars are promising in terms of EU trend reversal. If 1.24 will be crossed tomorrow firmly I will expect 1.2670, especially if EJ will follow.

2010-06-24 15:06 GMT +1

UJ - this is tricky one, as it's not a pinbar, but I see significant support area where this pair bounced within last four hour period.
If setup for long on this pair will allow tight stop loss, I may consider trading it [if 89.60 is broken]

USDCAD - this one looks like double top on 4H chart. In other words if this pair cross 1.04 down firmly I will start to look for short.

2010-06-24 7:23 GMT +1

There is not exact setup on 4H candles, however here's my general outlook of what I expect from a market.
I will rather not trade any of these pairs right now, however would like to share what I think may happen within next few hours:

Gold - up
UJ - down
EU - up
Mini-Dow - up
AU - up
GU - look for correction, than up

2010-06-23 22:45 GMT +1

I wasn't active on my blog as I was mostly focused on new home sales release and FOMC statement.

As for today daily candle:

I will consider taking EU long tomorrow above today high, especially if in confluence with break of today EJ high.

As I said earlier I don't trust EU. However I believe that if I'm right this pair will fall overnight and will not reak mentioned level. Otherwise if it will break it - I see a chance to gain about 50 pips during London session.

2010-06-23 7:20 GMT +1

Nothing I would recommend for trading right now.

UJ - 4H pinbar I'm not going to trade...

As a daily summary:
I think GU still need to retrace, I expect another falling day this week [not necessarily tomorrow]

Euro still in bad shape - no doubt there and certainly not a single day can change it.

One of a side effects of UK budget release I think may be clear separation British economical problems from European economical problems. Therefore further plunge of euro may not be followed by fall of Pritish Pound, what so far usually was a case.

2010-06-22 15:18 GMT +1

I see return up on GU and GJ, and possible rises [but not too exciting] on CADJPY.

Certainly budget reveal in UK strongly influenced GBP performance, therefore I would first wait for some pullback on 30M chart until I would enter a trade.

I expect this pair to rise in log term, I said about at least two day of correction, what I think may be considered as happened.

I think bounce up off weekly pivot 1.4750 would be better than perfect to long [but prefect setup is required first.

If this scenario will work I expect around 75 to 100 pips II target and third part left for at least 1.4950 target.

For this trade I would use GJ and CADJPY as a confirmation.

2010-06-22 0:13 GMT +1

It looks like market breathe on back of drowning Euro.
Dow falls, but gold falls as well.
I suppose DOW will rise sometime tomorrow, as to GU and EU I think at least one more day of falls is good for them.


EU is definite pick of a day for tomorrow.

2010-06-21 16:55 GMT +1

I didn't find anything tradable.
I have general concept of what is and what may be going on, however this is one of those times, when one would rather stay away and in spite of general knowledge where market is heading wait for perfect setup.

2010-06-21 11:20 GMT +1

quite massive pinbar on GU and double top sort of pin on EU. I think I will wait for some bigger pullback until I will enter. there is 00 area on EU that may play some role, so maybe pullback to 1.2430 will work fine for me...

2010-06-21 8:45 GMT +1

I opened one long EU trade already, however closed as I was not convinced enough as to its future.

In general I would be much more convinced to trade XXXUSD short, but yet no appropriate signal showed up.

To sum up EU EJ and AU look like long setups to me, but only EU was somehow interesting as a trading pair, yet I closed this as well for few bucks loss.

weekly wrap-up

Today evening charts and started to think that it may be very right to expect euro to fall in longer run.
In general I am euro-hater in a long term [I think it's not going to stay for 80 years]
however in particular in my opinion there is nothing that important happening in Europe that would be reason strong enough to hammer eur down.
In other hand traders are not reasonable group of people and nowadays everyone would get calmer if this touchy world economic situation got resolved whatever the result. In other words it would much easier to be able to point the guilty one [like europe] than sit and have no clue what is going to happen.

Euro situation is like russian roulette, untill bullet shot, everyones' nerves on edge.

Anyway I think european socialist bankers deserve it. ;)

This week key is whether euro will work it's way above recession low [finished slightly above it on EU and EJ] if not - i see deep plunge ahead.


From daily point of view
GU shows some signs of regains, but at the moment it's in a key area of support, this may correct it's rises this week.

Will see tommorow London open.

2010-06-18 11:52 GMT +1

further falls on UJ are likely [no trading signal yet]

EJ same as UJ

USDCAD - turning up signs, not a signal yet

CADJPY same as UJ

I decided to not to trade till monday morning, but if I had to choose I would short CADJPY...

2010-06-18 7:40 GMT +1

gold - I don't feel familiar enough to real trade it, but I'll wach what would happened if shorted below 1243

EU - long above 1.2412, nice targets: 1.2452; 1.2483; 1.2519]