Tuesday fundamentals did not affected the market however marked moved around 200 pips up on GU and EU. As it seems to be ranging time there is time for contraction today or tommorow.

Home Sales data will be strong mover today.

Best scenario would be trade short on reversal after about half an hour of rising on EU and GU after release.

I give up all my opinions. Lack of direction lasted long enough, so both directions make sens. For now it seems that investors make some adventage of interest rate diferential so maybe the longer GU and EU will last on their levels the better for them. I'm reading Alchemy of finance by G. Soros, and geting more and more convinience that every move on the market will bounce back sooner or later. Will see and post. For tomorrow there is one my favourite data release: Existing Home Sales. If nothing significant will happen this may be nice trigger for move back up to 1.65 on GU or 1.3950 on EU. But I only good or neutral release will be good for taking long, and only if price will remain unchanged during the European session.

I'm still bearish in my mind. Two recent news action brought massive decreases on GU, however yesterday GU regained almost all of its loses. Today retail sales move GU down again, however this time it broke latest resistance 1.62, and yet it did not even gave a sign of retracement, so maybe it's a sign of moving further down. There is still US Unemployment Claims on its way, that might be nice trigger to break firmly 1.62 support, however the clearest for me price action that may happen is first to retrace to 50% fib of that massive move 1.6328, and then break 1.62 and run as low as possible. However this idea might be biased by my option position that is still not in money And I hope to hope in before friday afternoon ;).

In other hand I would be very very confused if 1.65 level was broken today as it could mean just anything. Yet I'm still bearish with expectation of bounce up to 1.63 before further loses

This week I'm waiting for either breaking up above recent high 1.6662 or below recent low 1.5800.

If it will happen during important news I would expect even price to not retrace around that level. If it will be broken during regular activity I will wait for retracement, and then enter with some small SL aiming for huge profit [300 - 500 pips]

Background idea when I've opened this blog was to spot only setups when I'm 100% sure. I need to keep remind it myself as when like today I don't open any trade I start to feel that maybe something is wrong with my ability.

So once again. FOREX is safe bussines as long as is treatened with caution. If I'm not sure, no position is the best position. That's all.

I also write it as I feel a bit uncomfortable that most of my gains from last week I lost this week [I still have one put option opened, it's valid till next pfiday, and if miracle won't happen I will be back where I was last week. Not bad at all, as I can take it as a kind of free lesson.

See you Monday.

I lost any idea of what may happen next. GU - my preferred pair for now goes up and away, however I would not trade it long with too much confidence. In other hand if it will cross 1.6660 [recent high on a daily] there would be even stronger evidence of rising power. There still is some limit around 2.0, it's where it was last year july, but it sopunds quite werid.

For now I'm staing away.

It's a hard time when you figure out that there is no gains with no risk.

It may get you when last position was looser and you think if it's a good idea to open again

It may get you, when last time was looser, and now your position is on a regain-last-loss level, but you still see the room for it to go further, however don't see any room to lower your current SL what keeps you aware that it still may be another loss.

My way of overcoming it is to be aware of nothing. I'm just look at price action as it was meaningless for me. As only involved thing was my trading plan, not money [trading plan not only for this given position, but general trading plan for this expected downtrend what means that if not this trade, maybe next one will succed.

I'm shortening EU and GU again as I said yesterday but there is no any special signal. I keep my SL at top of today [GU:1.6176 EU:1.3965]and TP around the bottom of yesterday [GU:1.5800 EU:1.3805].

PS you can subscribe me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/Krysztau

I was quiet recently as in spite of strong short tension on GU and EU pairs I did not saw anything I could say certainly enough.

I have took some pips on Friday US news, and lost some today trying to jump in short position without any special event coming.

There is first bunch of news coming Wednesday, however I hope to pips a bit tomorrow by entering short on some promising pullback. Keep in mind that I have no any special trading plan in my mind, just waiting and watching.

As I'm writing this note I came to mind that maybe I should stay away of the market for tomorrow..?

It's more and more obvious that something much bigger is on the line. GU goes plainly up as it was not planning to turn back anytime soon, UE retrace from time to time but nothing big downward, as if skyrocketing prices did not generate any sell pressure among traders.

Under such circumstances I'm going to make some huge step back to draw fibs from last year july high and follow monthly pivots. Will post some of my charts with lines soon.
Yet I won't comment on current charts and wait for tommorow news. To make it easier to watch I've started to post screens of 30M charts from previous data release. You can see it here:
http://fx-tool.blogspot.com
I'm just starting, but I have aredy posted charts for Pending Home Sales what you may find helpfull for tommorow trading

UJ appreciated over 100 pips last night after I posted my long sentiment on this pair. EU raised around 60 pips at the same time, however now it retraces and I'm demo-shorting it from 1.3874.

For US news I see opportunity to short EU even further, however I'm not sure what impact exactly may be. But there is much more room below it's current price than above.
UJ have some chance for small retracement, but general trend is still up.

It seems there is some local reversals approaching for next couple of days which should drive EURUSD down and USDJPY up. There might be some stagnation visible on GBPUSD pair with small sentiment down, so I'll leave this pair for a while.

This general idea of retracements came to me from observation of 30 min chart. Firstly move on GU and EU was not as firm as it used to be last week [more up-down action during a day] that show some confusion in decision making what should happen now. Another thing is decline of EU as a reaction to the today neutral US Existing Home Sales [only 0.03M deviation].

Al I ca say now is that my attention moved from GU to EU and UJ.

Today European session showed nice plunge on both GU and EU pairs. As Euro seems for me to be more vulnerable to risk aversion I would expect it to firstly retrace and secondly fall maybe even further. Good retracing trigger is US CB Consumer Confidence, so if there will be no retracement before that I would hope for good news and sell after move up. The problem is how far up can it move, or how long would it move up on good US news. I see nice resistance @ 1.3944 [it's last swing down before plunge] However I expect to be stopped out maybe two times before real move down will begin. Dependably on difference between expected and released data and initial price action I would expect to place first order around 5-15 min after news, if it didn't work, next half an hour up to one hour may be next good moment, and the third one will be after 2-3 hours.

As there is not too much action after news, and price bounced back above my entry level I have already closed half position with 9 pips loss and set another half to close with 9 pips profit.

EURUSD order is filled. I hav set SL @ 1.3990 and TP @ 1.3925.
there is bank holiday in US and UK so I'll have a look in half an hour.

Calm weekend opening makes me suppose that price is quite comfortable on it's current level. According to last week price action I have set sell stop for German Ifo Business Climate release at bottom line of channel formed from the beginning of Monday @ 1.3975. However if price will hit upper line of a channel I will cancel my order.

There is nice free signal service on Forex Peace Army [all you need to do is to register for free]. I will consider trading their triggers today

As there was no any extraordinary price action I have closed my GU position with 97 pips gain. The only reason for that is closing position before market close on Friday 

In terms of Risk/Reward ratio I wouldn't say that it was 1:1. Please keep in mind, that my 100 pips SL was placed in case some accident happened.It's not exactly same thing when you place some SL because method demand it o be paced exactly here or there. R/R factor makes sense when you use automated trading rules. In my recent trades My SL and TP were rather floating and depending on my impression about the market. Therefore if anyone wants to think what is m RR ratio, one should follow all my trades and figure average loss and average profit taken from all trades [there is not enough of them so far to count some reliable averages, but sooner or later there will be more]. I am protecting my position from unexpected loses by placing SL, but those are rarely triggered as I exit position much earlier [usually when I change my opinion about market sentiment]. So here's piece of my thought about trading philosophy.

Strategy for now:
If price will reach 1.5755 [last wing low] I will try to close it with no gains.
If it bounce before reaching that resistance, I will move SL to 1.5755 ad then to next swing ow after price will return above new high @ 1.5950

My GBPUSD long order was filled in during early European session. I was very good in predicting a bit bigger move down so my 100 pips SL was not triggered.

Now when price will break 1.59 I will start to manage this trade by moving SL somewhere higher.
There is possible scenario from two days ago, that price will go strongly up and then shadow most of that move, so I will possibly be out around 6pm GMT.

GBPUSD Is still running up. For tonight I'm leaving buy limit @ 1.5820 with 100 pips SL and sell stop @ 1.5510.

The most unexpected what can happen to me is price ranging after retracement to 1.55

Have I just said "fake move" yesterday?
Here it goes total reversion to 1.5515 and then bounce to 1.5600 [exactly as I said 50-70 pips from 1.5545]!

Now it's good moment for final decision. If price will go back to touch the top of last rally I would expect it to rise even further [after a little consolidation around 1.58]. If price won't touch that level I would set sell stop at 1.5510, as this might bring some nice 100 points profit in first run, and might be first sign of trend change.