In terms of "predicting the past" I'd like to post a bit of comment on what did I predicted in relation with what happened exactly.
As UK Manufacturing PMI did not surprise me [merely higher than expected] I did not open the trade. Additionally as you can see on chart [firs yellow vertical line] price at the time of news was somewhere in a middle of mentioned in previous post channel what additionally discouraged me from any action.

What is definitely worth of attention is that my trading plan worked perfectly on US Pending Home sale [second line]. Of course now it's just looking back with no trading value, however I'm quite proud of it as this made me a bit more concerned that GBP is simply not worth anything more than 1.66. So just to feed my ego. There was GU over 1.6460 [1.6530], news was quite bad for investors, what drove GU down 50 pips within an hour.
As I'm writing it it's already Thursday after non-farm payroll, and I can see that GU plunged even further, but it would be far too much to point any relation between that and my predictions.

And here's the chart for you:

Today UK Manufacturing PMI would be perfect for short trade in case of worst than expected data. However asian session created quite plain decreasing channel [30min chart]. If at the moment of release price was at the bottom of it I would stay away.

Best scenario would be if before the news price will rise above 1.6460 there would be over 70 pips room for short move on bad news.

If data released was positivly suprising, I would trade long only if price was low enough [1.64 or lower].

Neutral data or some unusual price action before the news will definetly keep me off trading.

First of all Consumer Confidence was lower than expected, secondly at a release time it was 200 pips below today top. As none of my condition was filled I did not trade it at all, however it's worth of attention that bad US news caused another 100 pips decrease with not much sign of bounce back yet. Therefore I have no any prefered direction of trading for tommorow. I expect manufacturing PMI to triger change of local trend, and non-farm payroll to dictate trend for nearest week or two.

As an ilustration, there's a picture of today GU 30 min chart.

I see a lot of fuuz around 1.6660 level [ by myself placed SL at that level]. Today US Consumer Confidence is in my opinion crucial for nearest future of GU. Personally I will trade it long especially if data were neutral or better than expected. If before the news price will be not more than 80 pips from current top @1.6743 I expect it to go even further. If it's too far from it we will probabily see either no action up or 50-80 pips up within firs 1,5-2 hours just to rebound to prerelease price.

If price will break current top before the news I would be very cautious as both direction would be possible regardless of level of confidence.

There are neither important events nor specific direction I could spot, so I'm staing away of the market today. Tommorow UK Hose Price Index might be tradable as well as US Consumer Confidence. Market moves sideways so far, so I will be betting on bounce down on top of upper ines on GU or EU.

That's all for today

Tuesday fundamentals did not affected the market however marked moved around 200 pips up on GU and EU. As it seems to be ranging time there is time for contraction today or tommorow.

Home Sales data will be strong mover today.

Best scenario would be trade short on reversal after about half an hour of rising on EU and GU after release.

I give up all my opinions. Lack of direction lasted long enough, so both directions make sens. For now it seems that investors make some adventage of interest rate diferential so maybe the longer GU and EU will last on their levels the better for them. I'm reading Alchemy of finance by G. Soros, and geting more and more convinience that every move on the market will bounce back sooner or later. Will see and post. For tomorrow there is one my favourite data release: Existing Home Sales. If nothing significant will happen this may be nice trigger for move back up to 1.65 on GU or 1.3950 on EU. But I only good or neutral release will be good for taking long, and only if price will remain unchanged during the European session.

I'm still bearish in my mind. Two recent news action brought massive decreases on GU, however yesterday GU regained almost all of its loses. Today retail sales move GU down again, however this time it broke latest resistance 1.62, and yet it did not even gave a sign of retracement, so maybe it's a sign of moving further down. There is still US Unemployment Claims on its way, that might be nice trigger to break firmly 1.62 support, however the clearest for me price action that may happen is first to retrace to 50% fib of that massive move 1.6328, and then break 1.62 and run as low as possible. However this idea might be biased by my option position that is still not in money And I hope to hope in before friday afternoon ;).

In other hand I would be very very confused if 1.65 level was broken today as it could mean just anything. Yet I'm still bearish with expectation of bounce up to 1.63 before further loses

This week I'm waiting for either breaking up above recent high 1.6662 or below recent low 1.5800.

If it will happen during important news I would expect even price to not retrace around that level. If it will be broken during regular activity I will wait for retracement, and then enter with some small SL aiming for huge profit [300 - 500 pips]

Background idea when I've opened this blog was to spot only setups when I'm 100% sure. I need to keep remind it myself as when like today I don't open any trade I start to feel that maybe something is wrong with my ability.

So once again. FOREX is safe bussines as long as is treatened with caution. If I'm not sure, no position is the best position. That's all.

I also write it as I feel a bit uncomfortable that most of my gains from last week I lost this week [I still have one put option opened, it's valid till next pfiday, and if miracle won't happen I will be back where I was last week. Not bad at all, as I can take it as a kind of free lesson.

See you Monday.

I lost any idea of what may happen next. GU - my preferred pair for now goes up and away, however I would not trade it long with too much confidence. In other hand if it will cross 1.6660 [recent high on a daily] there would be even stronger evidence of rising power. There still is some limit around 2.0, it's where it was last year july, but it sopunds quite werid.

For now I'm staing away.

It's a hard time when you figure out that there is no gains with no risk.

It may get you when last position was looser and you think if it's a good idea to open again

It may get you, when last time was looser, and now your position is on a regain-last-loss level, but you still see the room for it to go further, however don't see any room to lower your current SL what keeps you aware that it still may be another loss.

My way of overcoming it is to be aware of nothing. I'm just look at price action as it was meaningless for me. As only involved thing was my trading plan, not money [trading plan not only for this given position, but general trading plan for this expected downtrend what means that if not this trade, maybe next one will succed.

I'm shortening EU and GU again as I said yesterday but there is no any special signal. I keep my SL at top of today [GU:1.6176 EU:1.3965]and TP around the bottom of yesterday [GU:1.5800 EU:1.3805].

PS you can subscribe me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/Krysztau

I was quiet recently as in spite of strong short tension on GU and EU pairs I did not saw anything I could say certainly enough.

I have took some pips on Friday US news, and lost some today trying to jump in short position without any special event coming.

There is first bunch of news coming Wednesday, however I hope to pips a bit tomorrow by entering short on some promising pullback. Keep in mind that I have no any special trading plan in my mind, just waiting and watching.

As I'm writing this note I came to mind that maybe I should stay away of the market for tomorrow..?

It's more and more obvious that something much bigger is on the line. GU goes plainly up as it was not planning to turn back anytime soon, UE retrace from time to time but nothing big downward, as if skyrocketing prices did not generate any sell pressure among traders.

Under such circumstances I'm going to make some huge step back to draw fibs from last year july high and follow monthly pivots. Will post some of my charts with lines soon.
Yet I won't comment on current charts and wait for tommorow news. To make it easier to watch I've started to post screens of 30M charts from previous data release. You can see it here:
http://fx-tool.blogspot.com
I'm just starting, but I have aredy posted charts for Pending Home Sales what you may find helpfull for tommorow trading

UJ appreciated over 100 pips last night after I posted my long sentiment on this pair. EU raised around 60 pips at the same time, however now it retraces and I'm demo-shorting it from 1.3874.

For US news I see opportunity to short EU even further, however I'm not sure what impact exactly may be. But there is much more room below it's current price than above.
UJ have some chance for small retracement, but general trend is still up.

It seems there is some local reversals approaching for next couple of days which should drive EURUSD down and USDJPY up. There might be some stagnation visible on GBPUSD pair with small sentiment down, so I'll leave this pair for a while.

This general idea of retracements came to me from observation of 30 min chart. Firstly move on GU and EU was not as firm as it used to be last week [more up-down action during a day] that show some confusion in decision making what should happen now. Another thing is decline of EU as a reaction to the today neutral US Existing Home Sales [only 0.03M deviation].

Al I ca say now is that my attention moved from GU to EU and UJ.

Today European session showed nice plunge on both GU and EU pairs. As Euro seems for me to be more vulnerable to risk aversion I would expect it to firstly retrace and secondly fall maybe even further. Good retracing trigger is US CB Consumer Confidence, so if there will be no retracement before that I would hope for good news and sell after move up. The problem is how far up can it move, or how long would it move up on good US news. I see nice resistance @ 1.3944 [it's last swing down before plunge] However I expect to be stopped out maybe two times before real move down will begin. Dependably on difference between expected and released data and initial price action I would expect to place first order around 5-15 min after news, if it didn't work, next half an hour up to one hour may be next good moment, and the third one will be after 2-3 hours.

As there is not too much action after news, and price bounced back above my entry level I have already closed half position with 9 pips loss and set another half to close with 9 pips profit.

EURUSD order is filled. I hav set SL @ 1.3990 and TP @ 1.3925.
there is bank holiday in US and UK so I'll have a look in half an hour.

Calm weekend opening makes me suppose that price is quite comfortable on it's current level. According to last week price action I have set sell stop for German Ifo Business Climate release at bottom line of channel formed from the beginning of Monday @ 1.3975. However if price will hit upper line of a channel I will cancel my order.

There is nice free signal service on Forex Peace Army [all you need to do is to register for free]. I will consider trading their triggers today