GJ - entry on bottom of previous week low [4h chart, grey line]. Price firstly ranged just below mentioned level. Then break of bottom of the range was sort of alert to enter [blue ellipse]. I managed to enter @ 141.05.

my TP was 140.55. However it was not triggered I managed to close half with 30 pips profit after I noticed how close to my TP level price just bounced back.
I moved SL for another half 5 pips above entry level, what caused me 5 pips loss on another half.

After this GJ raised 40 pips above marked level, so closing trade with small loss was definitely profitable decision.

I decided to return to my practise of making notes. My new commentaries will differ a bit.

I will mostly post levels where I expect price to turn back for 30 pips and more. I will be making trade decisions simultaneously basing on marked conditions after level was touched. Then I will post all trades I've opened, sometimes with charts and comments.

sometimes I will post interesting setups on daily chart and will describe if trade them.

In nearest future I will submit my trades on myfxbook, so you can study exact levels and times of my trades.

EU: 1.4483 is an important high of recent range, so price as it is now - above this level gives nice possibility of trading long.

GU: not as clear as EU, I would wait for this pair to break daily low or high first.

EJ: here nice upmove too. Expect rises with resistance area @ 134.50

GJ: same as GU, needs proper break of today hi/low first. 150.70 and 146.12 are nearest resistance levels.

2010-01-07 Morning session commentary

*Actually none of those trades was taken off clear and nice setup.

9:17 UJ buy @92.75
9:37 EJ buy @133.29
9:37 EU buy @1.4382
10:30 1/2EU sell @1.4371

today started with spike on JPY crosses. Market was quite messy, however on divergence between JPY pairs and USD pairs I decided to long UJ. Big mistake was to take first dip after spike, usually second is deeper, and that's what happened this time. I should prevent myself from trading at all so early after spike, but I didn't and loss on UJ was a price of it.

What was surprising, EU after plunge started to regain it's position very quickly, therefore I decided to enter this move [what I did announced on FF thread earlier]. In spite of lack of proper setup I opened EJ position as well as UJ was looking for me as it was going to appreciate, so I could make sure I won't miss the move.
As you can see on a chart at the moment of taking that second trade GU was forming higher bottom, so when I saw deep plunge on GU I decided to close EU position. I kept EJ trade open and managed to close half at +20 pips profit, accordingly to trading method, however on second half I managed to save just 6 pips.

Last trade - short EU I opened when waiting for reversal setup to unwind what didn't happened. I closed trade with + 6 and +2 pips

2010-01-07 Morning session preparation

Came a bit late, so here's short version:

EU: further shorts possible [but not trade if price trade higher or retracement [30M]

EJ: possible rise after correction.

GU: short below 1.5936

GJ: rise especially above 148.20

2010-01-06 Morning session commentary

There were two trade opportunities today.
First, when EU ran out of steam on retracemet after preopen plunge, it was around 38% level, there was short setup on both EU and EJ based on my preopen analisys. This trade however turned out to be loosing one.

Second trade was based purely on higher bottom on GU and GJ, both pair had potential of 60 pips gain, what was double success, as I expected up to 40 pips trade on GU and predicted 148 as a target price, that was taken.

2010-01-06 Morning session preparation

EU: quite unusual drop just before market open suggest further drops, however expect price to retrace to 1.4320 - 34 lvl before that. Don't trade above 34.

EJ: may be nice shorting alternative with 131.25 daily low. If broken may give next 50 pips decrease.

GU: on steady fall, it may either retrace or move sharply lower. If traded I would not expect much of a move today [30-40 pips].

GJ: this pair needs to retrace badly, so expect it today, but bare in mind that GJ is on general downtrend, so treat 148 as a possible top for today. [148.30 is 50% lvl of last 2 days move.]

2010-01- 04/05 Morning session commentary

4.01
I started with failed trade on EU, as it broken initially a bit lower with nice confirmation on GU. This trade was worth -10 pips.

Soon after SL on my EU position was hited price on both EU and GU retraced to previos levels from before 8:00am. I read it as a clear bounce of GU from daily low and decided to trade long in spite of lack of clear setup [as you can read I was expecting long trade off red support on GU that day, that's why I decided to enter early]. GU rallied initial 20 pips very quickly, and charged higher hitting my planned target for second half at daily high [+ 60 pips for second half].




5.01
This was very moody day.
My first trade was based on my market overview for EU and confirmation on EJ [-9 pips]. Unfortunately it was a looser, second was another approach to trade my prognosis, this time I bought GU [-13 pips].

2010-01-05 Morning session preparation

EU: there is channel broken up on 30M chart, great for long, especially above 1.4450. important resistance [bottom of Asian channel] @1.44 if price retrace to this area, I would wait and eventually trade short below this level.[If traded long - there is plenty of room up on daily chart]

EJ: yesterday struggled with new highs, however not potential seller yet. Strong resistance above 133.50, so beware if you trade long. Whatever direction of trade you should be careful. Reversal on daily [middle of leg up in flat channel] is possible.

GU: This pair is on a nice buy setup but 1.6240 may be limit for what it may do today, however above that level there is plenty of room to rise.

GJ: has good potential to fall 300 pips within two days and even more within two weeks. for buy signals stick with either GU or EJ.

2010-01-04 Morning session preparation

EU: Currently on it's leg down on daily, with important 1.4220 support [recent low] and in my opinion very important 1.4115 - 61% fib level, so yet I would be glad to catch short trade on it, especially below 1.4280 - this is very important line on 30M for me.

EJ - significant uptrend on this pair [on daily there is leg up on rangy pattern]. On a daily I see 9 consecutive rising candles what makes me think that retracement is possible, however I'm not convinced about entering short on short signs on EU

GU: Is very near to important support, and gives some suggestions of reversal on daily. I would be strongly short below 1.6050, and moderate long above 1.6100 [based on 30M chart]

GJ: Strong uptrend on 30 [149 is important resistance, suspend trading below this level] Daily chart looks promising as well, as there is plenty of room up to 163 level.

I don't expect German ZEW to move the market. What can possibly happen here is that this data would trigger a bigger move [but obviously no price action will be caused by data, it's rather traders waiting for data to do whatever they wanted to anyway]. Additionally I do believe that big move can happen only in trend direction, so worse than expected data will keep me away from market. If data was better than expected I will wait for some small retracement on 1M chart [even if initial move will be down].

If EU price break below current 30M range low 1.4950 I would cancel all actions planed.

All FX services I use [dailyFX, forexpeacearmy, blackswantrading, fxbootcamp] yeld USD turnaround.
I can't agree or disagree with any of their statements, what I'm focused on is when to say "stop, we're wrong".
Another USD plunge today didn't prove anything, just brought a bit of confusion.

I will be definitely focused on Aussie interest rate tonight, before just in half an hour there is UK Services PMI released.
For this news I'm in general biased short, so worse than expected data would be much more promising for me.
Best point for entering short would be 1.5975 - it's 50% fib level for last hour plunge [between 8:00 and 9:30 GMT+1], this might be important resistance in case of better than expected data.

Whatever initial spike will be, it's very likely that it will turn back to 50% between top or bottom of spike and pre-release price, and that's the level where I'm keen to enter [either short if initial spike was down or long if it was both up AND data was better than expected].

It may happen especially if data was better, that spike will go up, but price will back to pre-release and go lower [pre-release will be my SL] in this case I would re-enter on 50% fib between highest price of the spike and lowest after break below pre-release price.

Today news was not exactly what I expected. There was spike on GU and EU against data released, however it took quite a long time in terms of news trading to retreace to pre-release levels.
There was anyway nice trade on UJ, it was 50% retrace between news spike and pre-news level [around 89.16] from there price went around 50 pips down.

My general bias was for long UJ and short GU and EU, but news was rather against that, but that was the reason why I did not expected much of a plunge on UJ.

A big surprise was massive 120 pips rally in UJ 1,5h after the news, what I can't explain however treat it as a confirmation of trend reversal on this pair. [and possibly confirmation of short term decrease on EU]

For today Non-Farm Payroll I have mixed feelings about UJ, It's on definite trend down, however It's on bottom of a channel, near January low and there was very clear pin-bar on Monday that may indicate some trend reversal.
Very important is a fact that today data may establish significant high or low for nearest future, so if I opened correct position on it, I would let half of it run for bigger profit [92.53 up or 87.12 down]. If there was strong rally in first five minutes or so I will try to enter on 50% retracement [calculated from pre-release price].

EU seems to be nice plunger on this release, best strategy would be to trade breakout below prerelease price if initial spike was up, very big plunge potential is in this pair if it worked out.

For GU I have no specifisc strategy, it is possible it will go along euro, however GU plunged strongly already, so there is much less potential in it than in euro so if anything I would just copy my EU trade.

As usual - nice recovery thumping data brought some random price action, this time EJ and UJ price shadowed its morning slump.

In terms of predictions I would see quite a bit of room for EJ to go much higher recent high @ 134.40 is crucial for this pair to unveil.

As for GU and EU I hold general belief that they will move more or less together, but what make it really interesting is absolutely different situation.

As for EU I see one of two scenarios possible:
- traders totally convicted that Euro is best place to hold the money [recession is gone] so this pair will rally as long as it won't hit it's levels from July last year [1.60] slightly retracing on the way.
or
- Euro runs out of steam and sooner or later it will retrace at least to 1.44 or maybe even lower, and 1.4720 resistance is a perfect level to start such move back.

GU also stands in a middle of action, and whatever it would decide to do there is reason for that.

-Due to a hints from BoE about rate cut GU fell a bit, however today was definitely consolidation day.
What BoE said was exactly information that in spite of biggest efforts, there are not enough money in the market as retail bankers are not that keen to lend it to a public. It's a big issue - if big dogs don't feel like lending, why we should believe in recession happy end.

In other hand it's obvious there was no a single trader to buy a penny on BoE announcement, GU collapsed, but every move [especially big sudden moves] is shadowed back by opposite price action. So this is another thing that may happen to GU. It may retrace all yesterdays loses and go back to it's track way above 1,70.

My general conclusion is that GU is better to go long in case of EU and GU rallies [as GU already retrace a bit what possibly is ahead of EU]. EU is better for short in case of credit crunch part two as it has much much more to loose.

Personally I expect bullish option to unfold.

JPY weakened a bit, GBP slumped on hints from BoE that interest rate should be reduced, however it looks that there was no significant news that would change anything. EU rises too fast, however I would hesitate with buying as retracement may show up. GU fell but it's far from bottom of channel @ 1.6050.
Weakening of JPY gave some rises even on UJ, but there is nothing certain here either.
I have no clue what to do in terms of trading. There is possible regain on GU as there is no big deal in terms of international currency trading about this interest hints. Just traders earning their money.

In general I think it's better to believe in recovery, but the only reason for that is the brighter future if this plan will work. If I was wrong on that - everything would plunge. Maybe it's just a kindness of those who believe in second slump of economy that they dont sell like crazy, just stay aside, but whatever reason it causes economy to be alive at least.

As for EU news, not only GU broken lower before news but also post release price astion on M1 chart was far from what I expected therefore I prevented myself from trading today. Later during a day Morning EU low turned out to be today low, but staing aside is also a position.

For today I'm comfortable with taking long on either EU or GU after European Industrial Production release. What I'm looking for exactly is if price will not break lower [current low is EU@1.4515 and GU@1.6550] around news and what's more 1M chart after news will show some higher lows higher highs. I would treat it then as good SL level and would bet for 100 pips gain within coup[le of hours no matter what news will be.
Otherwise, ifprice will continue falling I would stay away for today.

On a morning UK news I have managed to gain some pips, which I managed to waste on attempts to reenter market. Pound did not break it's highs @ 1,6741 and ranged for the rest of the day.

Situation was quite different on USDJPY past Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment. I was not sure what will be exact direction after release, I was expecting either risk appetite driven depreciation of the pair or significant up [both if news were better than expected]. Finally I decided to trade daily options betting on both directions, and that was just perfect [I assume that it was luck based gains as driven by JPY appreciation what I did not predicted].

To sum things up, DOW didn't managed to break last week high, gold finished week above a 1000 with new high @ 1011 JPY skyrockets, dollar's flat. However it's not even correction, It's just a flat friday. If monday will bring new highs on dollar crosses I will think of buying like crazy.