As usual - nice recovery thumping data brought some random price action, this time EJ and UJ price shadowed its morning slump.

In terms of predictions I would see quite a bit of room for EJ to go much higher recent high @ 134.40 is crucial for this pair to unveil.

As for GU and EU I hold general belief that they will move more or less together, but what make it really interesting is absolutely different situation.

As for EU I see one of two scenarios possible:
- traders totally convicted that Euro is best place to hold the money [recession is gone] so this pair will rally as long as it won't hit it's levels from July last year [1.60] slightly retracing on the way.
or
- Euro runs out of steam and sooner or later it will retrace at least to 1.44 or maybe even lower, and 1.4720 resistance is a perfect level to start such move back.

GU also stands in a middle of action, and whatever it would decide to do there is reason for that.

-Due to a hints from BoE about rate cut GU fell a bit, however today was definitely consolidation day.
What BoE said was exactly information that in spite of biggest efforts, there are not enough money in the market as retail bankers are not that keen to lend it to a public. It's a big issue - if big dogs don't feel like lending, why we should believe in recession happy end.

In other hand it's obvious there was no a single trader to buy a penny on BoE announcement, GU collapsed, but every move [especially big sudden moves] is shadowed back by opposite price action. So this is another thing that may happen to GU. It may retrace all yesterdays loses and go back to it's track way above 1,70.

My general conclusion is that GU is better to go long in case of EU and GU rallies [as GU already retrace a bit what possibly is ahead of EU]. EU is better for short in case of credit crunch part two as it has much much more to loose.

Personally I expect bullish option to unfold.

JPY weakened a bit, GBP slumped on hints from BoE that interest rate should be reduced, however it looks that there was no significant news that would change anything. EU rises too fast, however I would hesitate with buying as retracement may show up. GU fell but it's far from bottom of channel @ 1.6050.
Weakening of JPY gave some rises even on UJ, but there is nothing certain here either.
I have no clue what to do in terms of trading. There is possible regain on GU as there is no big deal in terms of international currency trading about this interest hints. Just traders earning their money.

In general I think it's better to believe in recovery, but the only reason for that is the brighter future if this plan will work. If I was wrong on that - everything would plunge. Maybe it's just a kindness of those who believe in second slump of economy that they dont sell like crazy, just stay aside, but whatever reason it causes economy to be alive at least.

As for EU news, not only GU broken lower before news but also post release price astion on M1 chart was far from what I expected therefore I prevented myself from trading today. Later during a day Morning EU low turned out to be today low, but staing aside is also a position.

For today I'm comfortable with taking long on either EU or GU after European Industrial Production release. What I'm looking for exactly is if price will not break lower [current low is EU@1.4515 and GU@1.6550] around news and what's more 1M chart after news will show some higher lows higher highs. I would treat it then as good SL level and would bet for 100 pips gain within coup[le of hours no matter what news will be.
Otherwise, ifprice will continue falling I would stay away for today.

On a morning UK news I have managed to gain some pips, which I managed to waste on attempts to reenter market. Pound did not break it's highs @ 1,6741 and ranged for the rest of the day.

Situation was quite different on USDJPY past Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment. I was not sure what will be exact direction after release, I was expecting either risk appetite driven depreciation of the pair or significant up [both if news were better than expected]. Finally I decided to trade daily options betting on both directions, and that was just perfect [I assume that it was luck based gains as driven by JPY appreciation what I did not predicted].

To sum things up, DOW didn't managed to break last week high, gold finished week above a 1000 with new high @ 1011 JPY skyrockets, dollar's flat. However it's not even correction, It's just a flat friday. If monday will bring new highs on dollar crosses I will think of buying like crazy.

China expanded its export, USD decreaset overnight, GU broke 1,67.
For PPI i see strong buing oportunity as long as GU will manage to retrace below 1,67. 1,6686 is nice las day high to bounce from. Otherwise if GU left on its current level I would buy breakout of today high at 1,6733 with some tight stop loss.
If GU rised all morning, I would rather stay away. [this pair in my opinion badly needs some pullback].

Everything seems to be right. Treade balance felt more than expected, dow goes up, USD goes down, and what's more gold went a bit down. Did not break recent highs [what S&P did and DOW is quite close to it].
Tommorow GU deserved some proper retracement after todays gains hopefully before PPI input what would give nice signal to buy more and what's more important that would give nice stop area for trading.
For tommorow i hope to see some more movement for my USDJPY pair as I partially hedget my put option by spot order [so it's just my wish, nothing tradable ;)].

That's all for today :)

There is nothing new I can write.
USD falls, Dow rises, GU still below 1,67, EU breaks up a bit, gold touched 1000.
Recession have ended or not, no one knows, however everyone behave as it's done. In my opinion too many people is interested in gold, and it should be priced around 997. However gold skyrocketing indicate inflation fear. I think unemployment is very important indication of is recession over.
In fact there is not much to do in terms of trading, maybe daily options trading during GB interest rate decision and BoE statement. Nothing is for sure, I wouldn't even recomend buing gold, as recession is not that certain, if only US start to buy chinese things, there will be no more need for gold, and we will see 960 or so. [as I'm writing it gold is priced 985].

What I can say for sure is that there is a lot of werid price action that doesn't hold the water and sooner or later something must change. Unemployment must fall, inflation must skyrocket or stock must fall [recession part two version].

For trading tips I have one: go take vacation ;)