USD and JPY are gaining across the board, charts looks like a beginning of some apocalyptic scenario.
I tried to long GU today, but it turned out to be to early, however GBP still holds it's strong position among currencies.
In spite of terrible general situation I still believe in turn positive soon.
I have no specific types for tomorrow. Mostly my strategy will be to stay aside until some new 100% setup will show up.
Wednesday 30 June 2010
Tuesday 29 June 2010
2010-06-29 15:10 GMT +1
I would say not very promising but may hold due to fundamental circumstances GU 8H pinbar up.
First target for this trade is around 1.5124 [key resistance there that has a big chance to not to hold.
And certainly 1/3 of position should be left for longer run.
First target for this trade is around 1.5124 [key resistance there that has a big chance to not to hold.
And certainly 1/3 of position should be left for longer run.
Monday 28 June 2010
2010-06-28 23:12 GMT +1
I don't see asetup on a daily charts, but USDJPY and CADJPY are good candidates for turn up. It's not a setup on any of those pairs, but if one occure on a 4H chart tomorrow I will possibly trade it.
2010-06-28 19:27 GMT +1
I see quite promising long setup on UJ 4H candle, and not that promising [but still interesting on CADJPY 4H candle.
2010-06-28 12:22 GMT +1
There is nothing I would consider as a good setup, but I see some hints that if GU will fall to 1.5011 it may freely fall much lower. It's not a trade, It's a demo-trade I will possibly take, but I write it here for sake of knowing what I was thinking.
Saturday 26 June 2010
saturday 2010-06-26 17:03 GMT +1
Not much to trade this week, therefore no much comments on my blog.
Here are a few thoughts on daily and weekly charts:
From a daily point of view, GBP still in it's rising mode, In my opinion this pair needs desperately some retracement, however I admit that it may not happen this week yet [but certainly we can expect at least on falling day this week]
Euro is trying to fight its way up, and there are some hints that it may finally manage it. If it will happen UJ will probably stuck in range between 88 and 95, and DOW will start to gain.
Of course this would be the best scenario and I give it 40%.
From weekly point of view:
1.24 to 1.25 is a bunch of key resistance levels, so if EU will work above 1.25 way up is wide open for this pair, especially if GU retrace in a meantime, so it can gain freely.
EURJPY is in quite a bad shape now, and this may be an obstacle on a way up for Euro in general.
Gold and DOW will be for me heroes of a week, I will rather no trade them, but their behaviour is likely to trigger trend change for Euro and general market sentiment.
So still no setups, but there is certainly direction where to aim.
Here are a few thoughts on daily and weekly charts:
From a daily point of view, GBP still in it's rising mode, In my opinion this pair needs desperately some retracement, however I admit that it may not happen this week yet [but certainly we can expect at least on falling day this week]
Euro is trying to fight its way up, and there are some hints that it may finally manage it. If it will happen UJ will probably stuck in range between 88 and 95, and DOW will start to gain.
Of course this would be the best scenario and I give it 40%.
From weekly point of view:
1.24 to 1.25 is a bunch of key resistance levels, so if EU will work above 1.25 way up is wide open for this pair, especially if GU retrace in a meantime, so it can gain freely.
EURJPY is in quite a bad shape now, and this may be an obstacle on a way up for Euro in general.
Gold and DOW will be for me heroes of a week, I will rather no trade them, but their behaviour is likely to trigger trend change for Euro and general market sentiment.
So still no setups, but there is certainly direction where to aim.
Thursday 24 June 2010
2010-06-24 23:49 GMT +1
Daily:
GU - pinbar down off 1.5, as I said this pair needs one more day of falls, I would give it room to 1.48 if break below 1.49
EU - last three daily bars are promising in terms of EU trend reversal. If 1.24 will be crossed tomorrow firmly I will expect 1.2670, especially if EJ will follow.
GU - pinbar down off 1.5, as I said this pair needs one more day of falls, I would give it room to 1.48 if break below 1.49
EU - last three daily bars are promising in terms of EU trend reversal. If 1.24 will be crossed tomorrow firmly I will expect 1.2670, especially if EJ will follow.
2010-06-24 15:06 GMT +1
UJ - this is tricky one, as it's not a pinbar, but I see significant support area where this pair bounced within last four hour period.
If setup for long on this pair will allow tight stop loss, I may consider trading it [if 89.60 is broken]
USDCAD - this one looks like double top on 4H chart. In other words if this pair cross 1.04 down firmly I will start to look for short.
If setup for long on this pair will allow tight stop loss, I may consider trading it [if 89.60 is broken]
USDCAD - this one looks like double top on 4H chart. In other words if this pair cross 1.04 down firmly I will start to look for short.
2010-06-24 7:23 GMT +1
There is not exact setup on 4H candles, however here's my general outlook of what I expect from a market.
I will rather not trade any of these pairs right now, however would like to share what I think may happen within next few hours:
Gold - up
UJ - down
EU - up
Mini-Dow - up
AU - up
GU - look for correction, than up
I will rather not trade any of these pairs right now, however would like to share what I think may happen within next few hours:
Gold - up
UJ - down
EU - up
Mini-Dow - up
AU - up
GU - look for correction, than up
Wednesday 23 June 2010
2010-06-23 22:45 GMT +1
I wasn't active on my blog as I was mostly focused on new home sales release and FOMC statement.
As for today daily candle:
I will consider taking EU long tomorrow above today high, especially if in confluence with break of today EJ high.
As I said earlier I don't trust EU. However I believe that if I'm right this pair will fall overnight and will not reak mentioned level. Otherwise if it will break it - I see a chance to gain about 50 pips during London session.
As for today daily candle:
I will consider taking EU long tomorrow above today high, especially if in confluence with break of today EJ high.
As I said earlier I don't trust EU. However I believe that if I'm right this pair will fall overnight and will not reak mentioned level. Otherwise if it will break it - I see a chance to gain about 50 pips during London session.
Tuesday 22 June 2010
UJ - 4H pinbar I'm not going to trade...
As a daily summary:
I think GU still need to retrace, I expect another falling day this week [not necessarily tomorrow]
Euro still in bad shape - no doubt there and certainly not a single day can change it.
One of a side effects of UK budget release I think may be clear separation British economical problems from European economical problems. Therefore further plunge of euro may not be followed by fall of Pritish Pound, what so far usually was a case.
As a daily summary:
I think GU still need to retrace, I expect another falling day this week [not necessarily tomorrow]
Euro still in bad shape - no doubt there and certainly not a single day can change it.
One of a side effects of UK budget release I think may be clear separation British economical problems from European economical problems. Therefore further plunge of euro may not be followed by fall of Pritish Pound, what so far usually was a case.
2010-06-22 15:18 GMT +1
I see return up on GU and GJ, and possible rises [but not too exciting] on CADJPY.
Certainly budget reveal in UK strongly influenced GBP performance, therefore I would first wait for some pullback on 30M chart until I would enter a trade.
I expect this pair to rise in log term, I said about at least two day of correction, what I think may be considered as happened.
I think bounce up off weekly pivot 1.4750 would be better than perfect to long [but prefect setup is required first.
If this scenario will work I expect around 75 to 100 pips II target and third part left for at least 1.4950 target.
For this trade I would use GJ and CADJPY as a confirmation.
Certainly budget reveal in UK strongly influenced GBP performance, therefore I would first wait for some pullback on 30M chart until I would enter a trade.
I expect this pair to rise in log term, I said about at least two day of correction, what I think may be considered as happened.
I think bounce up off weekly pivot 1.4750 would be better than perfect to long [but prefect setup is required first.
If this scenario will work I expect around 75 to 100 pips II target and third part left for at least 1.4950 target.
For this trade I would use GJ and CADJPY as a confirmation.
Monday 21 June 2010
2010-06-22 0:13 GMT +1
It looks like market breathe on back of drowning Euro.
Dow falls, but gold falls as well.
I suppose DOW will rise sometime tomorrow, as to GU and EU I think at least one more day of falls is good for them.
EU is definite pick of a day for tomorrow.
Dow falls, but gold falls as well.
I suppose DOW will rise sometime tomorrow, as to GU and EU I think at least one more day of falls is good for them.
EU is definite pick of a day for tomorrow.
2010-06-21 16:55 GMT +1
I didn't find anything tradable.
I have general concept of what is and what may be going on, however this is one of those times, when one would rather stay away and in spite of general knowledge where market is heading wait for perfect setup.
I have general concept of what is and what may be going on, however this is one of those times, when one would rather stay away and in spite of general knowledge where market is heading wait for perfect setup.
2010-06-21 11:20 GMT +1
quite massive pinbar on GU and double top sort of pin on EU. I think I will wait for some bigger pullback until I will enter. there is 00 area on EU that may play some role, so maybe pullback to 1.2430 will work fine for me...
2010-06-21 8:45 GMT +1
I opened one long EU trade already, however closed as I was not convinced enough as to its future.
In general I would be much more convinced to trade XXXUSD short, but yet no appropriate signal showed up.
To sum up EU EJ and AU look like long setups to me, but only EU was somehow interesting as a trading pair, yet I closed this as well for few bucks loss.
In general I would be much more convinced to trade XXXUSD short, but yet no appropriate signal showed up.
To sum up EU EJ and AU look like long setups to me, but only EU was somehow interesting as a trading pair, yet I closed this as well for few bucks loss.
weekly wrap-up
Today evening charts and started to think that it may be very right to expect euro to fall in longer run.
In general I am euro-hater in a long term [I think it's not going to stay for 80 years]
however in particular in my opinion there is nothing that important happening in Europe that would be reason strong enough to hammer eur down.
In other hand traders are not reasonable group of people and nowadays everyone would get calmer if this touchy world economic situation got resolved whatever the result. In other words it would much easier to be able to point the guilty one [like europe] than sit and have no clue what is going to happen.
Euro situation is like russian roulette, untill bullet shot, everyones' nerves on edge.
Anyway I think european socialist bankers deserve it. ;)
This week key is whether euro will work it's way above recession low [finished slightly above it on EU and EJ] if not - i see deep plunge ahead.
From daily point of view
GU shows some signs of regains, but at the moment it's in a key area of support, this may correct it's rises this week.
Will see tommorow London open.
In general I am euro-hater in a long term [I think it's not going to stay for 80 years]
however in particular in my opinion there is nothing that important happening in Europe that would be reason strong enough to hammer eur down.
In other hand traders are not reasonable group of people and nowadays everyone would get calmer if this touchy world economic situation got resolved whatever the result. In other words it would much easier to be able to point the guilty one [like europe] than sit and have no clue what is going to happen.
Euro situation is like russian roulette, untill bullet shot, everyones' nerves on edge.
Anyway I think european socialist bankers deserve it. ;)
This week key is whether euro will work it's way above recession low [finished slightly above it on EU and EJ] if not - i see deep plunge ahead.
From daily point of view
GU shows some signs of regains, but at the moment it's in a key area of support, this may correct it's rises this week.
Will see tommorow London open.
Friday 18 June 2010
2010-06-18 11:52 GMT +1
further falls on UJ are likely [no trading signal yet]
EJ same as UJ
USDCAD - turning up signs, not a signal yet
CADJPY same as UJ
I decided to not to trade till monday morning, but if I had to choose I would short CADJPY...
EJ same as UJ
USDCAD - turning up signs, not a signal yet
CADJPY same as UJ
I decided to not to trade till monday morning, but if I had to choose I would short CADJPY...
2010-06-18 7:40 GMT +1
gold - I don't feel familiar enough to real trade it, but I'll wach what would happened if shorted below 1243
EU - long above 1.2412, nice targets: 1.2452; 1.2483; 1.2519]
EU - long above 1.2412, nice targets: 1.2452; 1.2483; 1.2519]
Thursday 17 June 2010
2010-06-17 10:55 GMT +1
GU - is aiming big on my 4H candle, but move was so fast that it became suspicious. Such a momentum needs some rest, so it's very likely that some minor reversal will occure on its way further up...
EU - also a big mover, can be watched for confirmation of GU
GJ - may turn out nicely too, sefinitely good to watch along with GU trading, just for confirmation...
EU - also a big mover, can be watched for confirmation of GU
GJ - may turn out nicely too, sefinitely good to watch along with GU trading, just for confirmation...
2010-06-17 9:15 GMT +1
still nothing, but GU may be first to move and may bounce sooner or later, that would be something for me then...
Wednesday 16 June 2010
2010-06-16 15:06 GMT +1
I see literally nothing on a chart. There are some moves, some breaks of candle high or candle low, but nothing I would trade off. That means time for a walk :)
2010-06-16 11:16 GMT +1
USDCAD - nice long [4 in 1-5 scale]
EDIT 11:49 GMT +1:
I need to cancel this call, overall USD weakness would not rather keep it going, pair will stuck at 00 level, why bother..?
EDIT 11:49 GMT +1:
I need to cancel this call, overall USD weakness would not rather keep it going, pair will stuck at 00 level, why bother..?
Tuesday 15 June 2010
2010-06-15 23:55 GMT +1
EJ - turn down? If driven by JPY crosses - I will leave it, if by EUR itself, may be sign of massive move down [but not much hope for that anyway, at least this would be something worth trading]
CADJPY - there is significant rising potential, but I would not trade it on simple breakout, rather on some retracement, confluence with price action on other correlated crosses or whatsoever.
AUDUSD - my favourite puppy made it quite nicely, however I was targeting for longer move. For now I'm that certain that this pair will turn back on 0.8666, that I closed 3/4 of my position earlier, last quarter I will hold as my plan was to leave small part for 400 pips profit. I left quite wide SL on that and wait for re-entry possibilities.
CADJPY - there is significant rising potential, but I would not trade it on simple breakout, rather on some retracement, confluence with price action on other correlated crosses or whatsoever.
AUDUSD - my favourite puppy made it quite nicely, however I was targeting for longer move. For now I'm that certain that this pair will turn back on 0.8666, that I closed 3/4 of my position earlier, last quarter I will hold as my plan was to leave small part for 400 pips profit. I left quite wide SL on that and wait for re-entry possibilities.
2010-06-15 16:20 GMT +1
Risk appetite is a winner of last 4H candle, EU may gain another bunch of pips, but AUDUSD is my ultimate puppy on break of 0.86 up.
If this trade work out I want to leave part of it up to 0.9, yet I'm not going to trade anything else.
PS
As I'm writing this post last candle formed over an hour ago, and my AUD trade is already triggered yet not in profit.
If this trade work out I want to leave part of it up to 0.9, yet I'm not going to trade anything else.
PS
As I'm writing this post last candle formed over an hour ago, and my AUD trade is already triggered yet not in profit.
15.06.2010 11:19 GMT +1
USDCAD - short below 1.0302 [mind double zero lvl]
CADJPY long above 88.82
June DOW futures - short below 10184 [especially if broken after NY open
CADJPY long above 88.82
June DOW futures - short below 10184 [especially if broken after NY open
Monday 14 June 2010
14.06.2010 19:21 GMT +1
The most attractive pin is forming on Mini-Dow 4H chart [45 min till candle close].
Rest mentioned here are very average or worse ideas.
UE short - not a proper 4H setup, but confluence of 50% extetntion of last swing and lost momentum on last 4H bar compared with previous two convinces me that at least a bit of correction should be expected here. 1.2150 may be pretty good final target for this one.
UJ still in no momentum up mode with key support level to be broken @91.70
According to EU and UJ analisys EJ is good shorting pair due to bounce off 23% fib extention
USDCAD - I'm already out of this trade with some profit. It did not meet my full expectations, but trade turn out to be pretty nice anyway. This one will possibly rise further, but I didn't really got excited about this one as well as about falling
Rest mentioned here are very average or worse ideas.
UE short - not a proper 4H setup, but confluence of 50% extetntion of last swing and lost momentum on last 4H bar compared with previous two convinces me that at least a bit of correction should be expected here. 1.2150 may be pretty good final target for this one.
UJ still in no momentum up mode with key support level to be broken @91.70
According to EU and UJ analisys EJ is good shorting pair due to bounce off 23% fib extention
USDCAD - I'm already out of this trade with some profit. It did not meet my full expectations, but trade turn out to be pretty nice anyway. This one will possibly rise further, but I didn't really got excited about this one as well as about falling
14.06.2010 GMT +1
USDCAD I shorted this pair once, but closed for 10 pips loss as price action did not convinced me, reopened on the second approach to 1.0286 level, and currently I took away partial profit, and wait for further run. Currently SL 10 points above entry, and wait to hit 1.0250 to take other part and move SL to BE.
apart of this trade i see UJ with it's very narrow range seems to reverse a bit. It's not a trade call, but it makes a good indicator in case of hesitation between USD and JPY crosses.
apart of this trade i see UJ with it's very narrow range seems to reverse a bit. It's not a trade call, but it makes a good indicator in case of hesitation between USD and JPY crosses.
14.06.2010 11:20 GMT +1
USDCAD break below 1.0286 seems to be an interesting short opportunity, however resistance on CADJPY above 89.50 seems to be a serious obstacle for CAD crosses to move further.
I'm still waiting for a pullback on AUDUSD that would be the good reason to long this pair, possibly for medium term trade...
I'm still waiting for a pullback on AUDUSD that would be the good reason to long this pair, possibly for medium term trade...
14.06.2010 9:48 GMT+1
Hi there, I woke up late, so I didn't updated today morning.
After quick chart observation AUDUSD dragged most of my attention as this pair broke above last three weeks channel, what might be valid sign of further rises of this pair.
Yet from 6am [London time] GU managed to break a bit above overnight range, but I don't see anything worth attention here yet.
After quick chart observation AUDUSD dragged most of my attention as this pair broke above last three weeks channel, what might be valid sign of further rises of this pair.
Yet from 6am [London time] GU managed to break a bit above overnight range, but I don't see anything worth attention here yet.
Friday 11 June 2010
11.06.2010 11:33 GMT+1
To sum up, session was not fruitfull, EU and GU went up to overnight high [without breaking it - so not buing here was hitting exactly the point of morning my snapshot.
Later I did not entered short GU [what could've been profitable, as there was UK news approaching].
Therefore I had a good day of no trading today.
Currently I see tempting short candle on GU, but it's not confirmed on any other cross [GJ or EU or whatsoever] therefore I'm going to prevent myself from trading till next 4H candle.
Later I did not entered short GU [what could've been profitable, as there was UK news approaching].
Therefore I had a good day of no trading today.
Currently I see tempting short candle on GU, but it's not confirmed on any other cross [GJ or EU or whatsoever] therefore I'm going to prevent myself from trading till next 4H candle.
11.06.2010 7:54 GMT +1
I will wait for some valid sign of move down on GU or EU, as I expect a bit of corection during London open.
11.06.2010 1:49 GMT +1
GU - approaching key resistance - expect correction
EU - similar situation, but here I still did not seen confirmation of trend reversal.
Personally I think eur wont go lower than it was this week, but I need it confirmed on a chart.
EJ - slightly above this week channel. I wouldn't take long on last day of a week, however this may indicate new direction for upcoming week.
GJ is on clear way to rise. Bounce up from 133.20-133.80 area would be a perfect sign to buy and hold [maybe even 1000 pips if it was lucky]
In general I'm definitely not going to trade overnight, and I expect Friday to be day of corrections or low volatility.
For a short comment, Thursday morning trade plan mostly prevented me from trading as price went against my expectations.
EU - similar situation, but here I still did not seen confirmation of trend reversal.
Personally I think eur wont go lower than it was this week, but I need it confirmed on a chart.
EJ - slightly above this week channel. I wouldn't take long on last day of a week, however this may indicate new direction for upcoming week.
GJ is on clear way to rise. Bounce up from 133.20-133.80 area would be a perfect sign to buy and hold [maybe even 1000 pips if it was lucky]
In general I'm definitely not going to trade overnight, and I expect Friday to be day of corrections or low volatility.
For a short comment, Thursday morning trade plan mostly prevented me from trading as price went against my expectations.
Thursday 10 June 2010
10.06.2010 7:54 GMT +1
Not much to say from charts, all my sentiment got cancelled due to overnight activity [including gold]
If some perfect setup occur on 1M chart I will possibly buy GU or EU.
If some perfect setup occur on 1M chart I will possibly buy GU or EU.
Wednesday 9 June 2010
09.06.2010 23:42 GMT +1
GU - 4H formation points clearly down, but I'm not gonna take it during assian session.
EU - same as GU
USDCAD - points up
CADJPY - down [thatthis may be born for CAD move for tomorrow]
AUDUSD - points down as yesterday, but this time top is higher then yesterday, so I will prevent myslef from trading for tonight
EU - same as GU
USDCAD - points up
CADJPY - down [thatthis may be born for CAD move for tomorrow]
AUDUSD - points down as yesterday, but this time top is higher then yesterday, so I will prevent myslef from trading for tonight
09.06.2010 11:08 GMT+1
GU on upway move
UJ strategy cancelled
GJ may be further up [132.20 as I type]
Gold is it pinbar? look if goes above 1239
AU strategy cancelled
To sum up - I will long GJ or GU on perfect 1M setup, [firm cross below 132 -GJ and 1.4450 -GU cancells all]
UJ strategy cancelled
GJ may be further up [132.20 as I type]
Gold is it pinbar? look if goes above 1239
AU strategy cancelled
To sum up - I will long GJ or GU on perfect 1M setup, [firm cross below 132 -GJ and 1.4450 -GU cancells all]
09.06.2010 GMT+1
Still chance for GJ to rally, and my Gold plan is still valid.
GU made higher low on 4H opposing to EU, that felt even lower last week. This makes GBP crosses more attractive to long in general.
GU made higher low on 4H opposing to EU, that felt even lower last week. This makes GBP crosses more attractive to long in general.
Tuesday 8 June 2010
09.06.2010 0:33 GMT+1
AU - this may e reverse down now [11:30 London time] from 0.8275
GOLD 1229 level combined with weak world economy is an extremaly strong area for bounce higher
GJ - bounce-like formation - think of long
UJ - similar to GJ, but weaker somehow... here chances for rise are still strong, but first wait for break above some 30m trendline... [good strategy - enter on perfect 1M signal up - keep it up to 50% retracement of recent 4H plunge, then wait for small reversal and another buy oportunity. This strategy I may copy on GJ.
GOLD 1229 level combined with weak world economy is an extremaly strong area for bounce higher
GJ - bounce-like formation - think of long
UJ - similar to GJ, but weaker somehow... here chances for rise are still strong, but first wait for break above some 30m trendline... [good strategy - enter on perfect 1M signal up - keep it up to 50% retracement of recent 4H plunge, then wait for small reversal and another buy oportunity. This strategy I may copy on GJ.
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