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Wednesday 6 May 2009

Price action on ADP Non-Farm Employment Change [came out much better than expected] gave me some clear view on what's going on.
Firstly there was quite a big spike up that broke 1.3340 on EU as I said. EU, EJ and UJ pairs apricieated strongly, however retracement on Euro pairs was same quick as quick was jump up [around one hour]. USDJPY did not retreace this way, but UJ plunged during asian session, so news spike can be understeanded as a return to yesterday price.

Overall price action brought me to thought that there's not too much pressure in currencies pot. Price is quite free to go either up or down [hower I would be much happier to open long positions on good news or pullbacks]. So for today I don't see reason for sharp moves, what's more I'm expecting Thursday and Friday to be rather quiet days.

For today ADP Non-Farm Employment Change I would trade EURUSD. Both directions are quite similary possible, however if I traded short trade I would close quite quickly.
If news won't deviate far from expectations I would trade long [with expectation of crossing 1.3340], if its much higher than expected, I would short EURUSD [with possible bounce from 1.3220].

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