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Thursday 17 September 2009

As usual - nice recovery thumping data brought some random price action, this time EJ and UJ price shadowed its morning slump.

In terms of predictions I would see quite a bit of room for EJ to go much higher recent high @ 134.40 is crucial for this pair to unveil.

As for GU and EU I hold general belief that they will move more or less together, but what make it really interesting is absolutely different situation.

As for EU I see one of two scenarios possible:
- traders totally convicted that Euro is best place to hold the money [recession is gone] so this pair will rally as long as it won't hit it's levels from July last year [1.60] slightly retracing on the way.
or
- Euro runs out of steam and sooner or later it will retrace at least to 1.44 or maybe even lower, and 1.4720 resistance is a perfect level to start such move back.

GU also stands in a middle of action, and whatever it would decide to do there is reason for that.

-Due to a hints from BoE about rate cut GU fell a bit, however today was definitely consolidation day.
What BoE said was exactly information that in spite of biggest efforts, there are not enough money in the market as retail bankers are not that keen to lend it to a public. It's a big issue - if big dogs don't feel like lending, why we should believe in recession happy end.

In other hand it's obvious there was no a single trader to buy a penny on BoE announcement, GU collapsed, but every move [especially big sudden moves] is shadowed back by opposite price action. So this is another thing that may happen to GU. It may retrace all yesterdays loses and go back to it's track way above 1,70.

My general conclusion is that GU is better to go long in case of EU and GU rallies [as GU already retrace a bit what possibly is ahead of EU]. EU is better for short in case of credit crunch part two as it has much much more to loose.

Personally I expect bullish option to unfold.

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