FRIDAY COMMENTARY:
As I predicted US ISM Manufacturing PMI was good trigger to release pressure accumulated by risk appetite for last few days. In spite of a bit better number EU GU ad UJ fell in first 30 minutes [what confirmed my theory] and rest of a day didn't brought new highs for any pair

WHAT NEXT?:
Now I expect to hear analysts talking about EU returning to its channel and about double top on GU. I wouldn't be surprised if both those pairs decreased on Monday or Tuesday, but I would wait with judgement if it's downtrend or did they just retrace.

My idea for now is to wait for nice short setups for those pairs. 1.3175 area for EU [50% fib] seems to be good to place Take Profit order. I'm not sure about GU. In spite of nice uptrend it was quite choppy, so maybe jump in and out would be better tactic, but it's not for me.

MONDAY NEWS:
For Monday there is Pending Home Sales released and again I would be much more happy to trade worse than expected news[EU and UJ], especially if price wouldn't decrease too much during European session.

TODAY CHART:
(Time of US news release is market with yellow vertical line)

1.05.2009

Yesterday's US news come within acceptable range, however just after release GU and EU pairs drop strongly. For me it seem as some pressure release happened, what keeps me in uncertainty about nearest market direction.

For today US news I would be happy to trade EU short if news will be worse than expected for USD [as good news increased EU value, opposite should happen with bad news].
I think there is still a bit of short pressure in EURUSD, however it may be not enough to press EU down on good US news.

Perfect trade would be bounce down on bad US news if price appreciated till 2:30 pm. I would expect about 50 pips.

If news are better than expected, it would be good for 30 pips up, but more I would find risky.