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Tuesday 30 June 2009

First of all Consumer Confidence was lower than expected, secondly at a release time it was 200 pips below today top. As none of my condition was filled I did not trade it at all, however it's worth of attention that bad US news caused another 100 pips decrease with not much sign of bounce back yet. Therefore I have no any prefered direction of trading for tommorow. I expect manufacturing PMI to triger change of local trend, and non-farm payroll to dictate trend for nearest week or two.

As an ilustration, there's a picture of today GU 30 min chart.

I see a lot of fuuz around 1.6660 level [ by myself placed SL at that level]. Today US Consumer Confidence is in my opinion crucial for nearest future of GU. Personally I will trade it long especially if data were neutral or better than expected. If before the news price will be not more than 80 pips from current top @1.6743 I expect it to go even further. If it's too far from it we will probabily see either no action up or 50-80 pips up within firs 1,5-2 hours just to rebound to prerelease price.

If price will break current top before the news I would be very cautious as both direction would be possible regardless of level of confidence.

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