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Friday 2 October 2009

Today news was not exactly what I expected. There was spike on GU and EU against data released, however it took quite a long time in terms of news trading to retreace to pre-release levels.
There was anyway nice trade on UJ, it was 50% retrace between news spike and pre-news level [around 89.16] from there price went around 50 pips down.

My general bias was for long UJ and short GU and EU, but news was rather against that, but that was the reason why I did not expected much of a plunge on UJ.

A big surprise was massive 120 pips rally in UJ 1,5h after the news, what I can't explain however treat it as a confirmation of trend reversal on this pair. [and possibly confirmation of short term decrease on EU]
For today Non-Farm Payroll I have mixed feelings about UJ, It's on definite trend down, however It's on bottom of a channel, near January low and there was very clear pin-bar on Monday that may indicate some trend reversal.
Very important is a fact that today data may establish significant high or low for nearest future, so if I opened correct position on it, I would let half of it run for bigger profit [92.53 up or 87.12 down]. If there was strong rally in first five minutes or so I will try to enter on 50% retracement [calculated from pre-release price].

EU seems to be nice plunger on this release, best strategy would be to trade breakout below prerelease price if initial spike was up, very big plunge potential is in this pair if it worked out.

For GU I have no specifisc strategy, it is possible it will go along euro, however GU plunged strongly already, so there is much less potential in it than in euro so if anything I would just copy my EU trade.

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