2010-12-31 23:40 GMT

Daily charts:
GBPUSD:
under last two months descending trendline, soon may bounce down off it

EURUSD:
Third lower high is much higher compared to distance between first and second, and recent low is higher and off 50% retracement of last 7 months move up. And a new year often brings change in trend. Sooner or later there will be long opportunity here in spite of recent financial trouble in EU.

EURJPY:
This one goes smoothly down yet next lower top is about to be established within first few days of a January.

GBPJPY:
Down-trend is more than obvious here, however what I will be looking at are lengths of waves. The one that started in beginning of August is a bit longer than one from mid September, and yet the one that started in second week of December didn't finished yet, but still is shorter than second one. And yet again - will new year mark a trend change?

AUDUSD:
This pair is quite unpredictable for me at the moment. It did lower low in beginning of December, now it is testing high of an up-trend that started in May. It may form double top as well as break higher. I will stay away of it.

AUDJPY:
Clear uptrend with strong trendline just below, however current wave is visibly weaker than the second and second is half as long as first. This is another candidate for trend reversal.

USDJPY:
Very slow moving pair, that's why I don't trade it. It goes down, but there will be better entry point if someone is interested.

USDCAD:
The only obstacle for this pair to fall below 1.0 is the Bank of Canada.I stay away

EURCHF:
Third wave down exceeded already length of the second one but what's more important it did not retraced for a month.
Christmas time was a bit choppy, but after retracement I would expect more falls here.

USDCHF:
Certain down-trend, nice to short on one or two days retracements.

DJI and DAX:
Both are rising, however I will wait for the first week of January.

Gold and Silver:
Definite up-trend with strong reason behind [money-printing and economic crisis in general]. I will be happy to trade it on good technical setups.

2010.11.22 22:55 GMT

EU daily short
EJ daily short

Gold - I missed mice long opportunity on it, however I expect further rises.

Mini-DOW - Very attractive long is forming. Pretty tricky trade as there is still resistance just above today's high. I think it will be broken on second or third approach tomorrow.

2010-11-07 22:51 GMT

I do believe EURJPY will fall in nearest future, as EUR shows bearish patterns across the board and there was no clear reversal on JPY yet (not any fundamental reason for this reversal as well)

19.10.2010 2:03 GMT

I think, that:
UJ will fall, however there is suspicious level @ 80.90, that may be as well level, where BOJ reacts firmly. Otherwise this one may be broken for another 50-100 pips.

GU seems to be due to some bigger retracement (300 pips or so), but in other hand
EURUSD wouldn't surprise me if it goes higher. (already attempted to broke yesterday's high as I'm writing).

No setups here just general thoughts.

2010-09-19 23:43 GMT +1

On a daily chart I see GBPUSD short pinbar, same on EURUSD, but nothing to get excited.
AUDUSD 0.9330 is a key low, that broken may lead to significant correction [100-300 pips], and this may be where I will focus this week.

2010-09-17 00:00 GMT +1

3176464
btu7uyt


As for today:
Nice formation on GU 4H chart that makes me think of buying it tomorrow morning. JPY weakened over the board yesterday, what makes me think there was some key BOJ intervention, and further losses can be expected.
AUDUSD is testing last year high, and I see a large chance for it to break higher, I think par with USD is within a reach in few months.
Gold is a bit worrying, as new highs may be a sign of a recession, however I am convinced that this pair will appreciate over time to discount inflation, however such a move will show some retracement, therefore I will not think to buy it this high. I like also DJI performance that undermine double dip concept.

2010-09-10 16:03 GMT +1

Quiet day, but Gold have formed nice pinbar on 4H chart I will trade soon.

2010-09-10 00:28 GMT +1

There is not much to trade for now, however I expect CAD to weaken [according to USDCAD and CADJPY price action]. Maybe tommorow there will be some opportunity for such a trade

2010-09-08 00:26 GMT +1

I really like my estimation from today morning,
GU felt lower, same as EU, but those moves don't indicate any negative sentiment in markets, I would rather call it deep breath before next steps forward.
Rise in price of Gold catches my attention, but yet I wouldn't call it escape from risk, rather need to diversify portfolio.

I must admit sharp fall of EURUSD was a surprise for me. I still believe that world can recover from crisis leaving Eurozone behind, and I would accept such a scenario as possible, but it's quite early to announce it.

2010-09-07 8:00 GMT +1

today I see chance for temporary depreciation of GBPUSD, especially break below 1.5350 will open chance for another 25-50 pips fall.

Similar situation with EURUSD, however 1.2775 is a very strong support that will hold if my general bullish sentiment is right.

2010-09-06 16:31 GMT +1

This week I will think of long GU and EU, there is also formation long on EJ that grabs my attention.
And good performance of DJI will be a confirmation for my general outlook.

2010-08-10 23:44 GMT +1

From daily chart:
Mini-Dow - may be a good buy at monday's high.
GBPUSD and AUDUSD if this is not a beggining of a correction, there may be a good chance to buy above today high.

2010-08-09 12:00 GMT +1

I see good looking short pinbar on 4H GBPJPY bouncing off recent trendline. I will watch closely and will trade short.

2010-08-09 2:48 GMT +1

In terms of daily chart analisys I will watch three charts: GBPUSD, DJI and Gold.
Gold is a nice indicator of general sentiment. Rise indicates doubts, fall indicates positive bias.
In case of doubts or negative bias I think GBPUSD may lost few hundered pips. In case of good scenario I would buy DJI futures as there is a promising pinbar on friday bar, that clearly indicates bottom boundary for buyers.

2010-08-03 11.43 GMT +1

I see interesting pin up on AUDUSD. Nose does not sticking out far down, but fundamental background is promising.

2010-07-20 11:10 GMT +1

a very good short setup on GU, right below weekly pivot, and perfectly confirmed by GJ.

Due to very high momentum right before hit of weekly pivvot I reccomend staing away before some retracement up to 1.5260 or at least 50, and than to wait for 1M PA confirmation.

2010-07-2010 10:55 GMT +1

I see nothing that interesting to trade, however I can see clearly rise on XXXJPY pairs, what may indicate BoJ intervention. I won't call any setup for now, but on UJ I see very clear possibility of 1-2-3 setup on intraday TF around 87 level. If 1M setup will be clear enough I will trade.

2010-07-19 1:26 GMT +1

WEEKLY

GU BUOB

UJ BEOB


Gold suspected, as no new break during this week...

Mini-Dow - pinbar bearish off 50% retracement with no reason to rise ;)


DAILY

Gold on daily looks as set to further falls.
DJI, I believe this pair will react off one of fib levels drawn on very last swing on this pair. So long bias for me [however I don't trade it at al]

2010-07-12 7:25 GMT +1

there is pretty nice reversal pattern on JPY crosses that generate three short signals:
UJ, EJ and CADJPY.
for european session I se EJ the most tradable, but all of them ha nice clear view below marked entry levels [see charts]

2010-07-13 2:21 GMT +1

I see 2-day pinbar on EU daily, and certainly this pair deserves few pips of retracement. I don't feel like trade it, but till morning all may change.

AUDUSD is a big thing. 0.8790 is a key level of resistance, there is round number just above it, so I would expect price to bounce from there, but final break [on second or third approach] will be a great deal to long there.

Gold and Dow are doing good, what keeps me sure that risk appetite prevails on the market, and current moves are only corrective ones.

2010-07-12 15:28 GMT +1

I like three pairs buy setups:
GU, EJ and AU

AU and GU are my old friends in betting long [two weeks of friendship is a long in this case)]
And here are the pictures:

2010-07-12 7:58 GMT +1

I see on 4H some initial correction on USD crosses without following of JPY counterparts. That's good, as may produce few signals later today or tomorrow.

On a daily GU now is breaking it's range I mentioned last week


On a weekly DOW regained losses from previous week, therefore formed 2weeks pinbar. Same situation on AUDUSD.

I see also weekly pinbar up on Gold, but I wouldn't trade it as I'd rather expect gold to fall.


In other words, there is nothing to trade right now, but i see some potential for setups to form later today or tomorrow.

2010-07-09 12:42 GMT +1

EU - good bearish pinbar, perfect if confirmed by short signal on EJ outside bar. [However I will trade EU]

2010-07-09 00:32 GMT +1

GU stuscked in range, so I won't comment on it until it moves. I will as well not announce any new setups on this pair as long as formed within this range. [but breakout strategies still welcome.

EUR show small gains for last few days, this may be sign of bigger moves here. In case of setup - there may be opportunity to catch gigantic move up.

2010-07-08 11:10 GMT +1

GJ - very good short
GU - good short

2010-07-06 23:43 GMT +1

GU if asian session won't bring anything new, tomorrow I wait for break of 1.52.

EU 1.2671 is a key level that if retested tomorrow will also break [for 50 pips or more]

EJ shows some signs of gains. I think one or two days more and some great setups will start to pop up here and there...

AUDUSD - clear OB up on daily, I like it a lot. But this is a tricky trade. There is a key resistance level @ 0.8577. I would trade this pair only if it react off this level and than slowly advance further. 0.8570 - 0.86 is a perfect TP1, than I would leave it to go maybe even to 0.87, just with adjusting SL here and there with final target @ 0.9.
to sum up, It's a 100% setup if and only if 0.8577 [or 0.86 will react first [at least 20].


Gold further fall ensures me in my risk appetite strategy [at the end of the day it's all just a psychology and traders biases...]

And DJI outside bar up on top of it...

2010-07-06 7:19 GMT +1

today London session is a chance for EUR and GBP to rise a bit further after asian, there is a good spot to aim just above overnight high.

2010-07-05 23:27 GMT +1

I have somehow missed long setup on GU, but it occurred quite late, so I'm mentally in long GU setup, but I'll wait till tomorrow morning to trade it. [price still range around the top of pinbar long I hope to trade.

On 4H chart USDCAD cought my attention as well, but This is more kind of preparation for tomorrow than something that would keep me up overnight.

2010-07-05 15:10 GMT +1

No signals, but what I wait for is long setup on GU, maybe soon...

2010-07-05 10:07 GMT +1

As for my daily analisys,

GU I see further up potential here.

EJ - I cant say up, but I can say for sure that fall below 107.30 [last week low] will be another sign of European recession and signal for investors to sell even more.

USDCAD - good to fall.

GOLD - my eyes on it, further fall good sign, back to 1240, still hesitating.

And for this day [or at least 4H candle]

AUDUSD may be nice long
USDCAD may be short

2010-07-02 7:14 GMT +1

I would try morning breakout strategy on EU and GU, especially if they will break up.
Also Buying CAD is welcome as I see sort of turn back formation on both USDCAD and CADJPY [CJ broke its yesterday high overnight].
Finally AUDUSD may be good trade long, but in therms of setup this one looks the less attractive.

2010-07-01 23:59 GMT +1

Today EU and GU move amazed me.
As for today, Move of CADJPY above 83.28 I will take as a natural consequence of today EUR and GBP gains. Therefore will treat as a good hint to buy it.
GBPJPY and AUDUSD may be good buyers as well, but firs I need some more reliable price action.

2010-07-01 8:24 GMT +1

I see not much oportunity to get in seriously. There is already a bit too late to catch the move on USD or JPY crosses but not much to say there is a reversal on risk appetite.

For today morning I think wthis may be smart to trade on EU or GU break outs no matter short or long, I think as well about shorting USDCAD, but none of those trades are "selftrading" ones. They are more kind of blindguessing with 60% chance of success...

2010-06-30 2:38 GMT +1

USD and JPY are gaining across the board, charts looks like a beginning of some apocalyptic scenario.
I tried to long GU today, but it turned out to be to early, however GBP still holds it's strong position among currencies.

In spite of terrible general situation I still believe in turn positive soon.

I have no specific types for tomorrow. Mostly my strategy will be to stay aside until some new 100% setup will show up.

2010-06-29 15:10 GMT +1

I would say not very promising but may hold due to fundamental circumstances GU 8H pinbar up.
First target for this trade is around 1.5124 [key resistance there that has a big chance to not to hold.

And certainly 1/3 of position should be left for longer run.

2010-06-28 23:12 GMT +1

I don't see asetup on a daily charts, but USDJPY and CADJPY are good candidates for turn up. It's not a setup on any of those pairs, but if one occure on a 4H chart tomorrow I will possibly trade it.

2010-06-28 19:27 GMT +1

I see quite promising long setup on UJ 4H candle, and not that promising [but still interesting on CADJPY 4H candle.

2010-06-28 12:22 GMT +1

There is nothing I would consider as a good setup, but I see some hints that if GU will fall to 1.5011 it may freely fall much lower. It's not a trade, It's a demo-trade I will possibly take, but I write it here for sake of knowing what I was thinking.

saturday 2010-06-26 17:03 GMT +1

Not much to trade this week, therefore no much comments on my blog.
Here are a few thoughts on daily and weekly charts:


From a daily point of view, GBP still in it's rising mode, In my opinion this pair needs desperately some retracement, however I admit that it may not happen this week yet [but certainly we can expect at least on falling day this week]

Euro is trying to fight its way up, and there are some hints that it may finally manage it. If it will happen UJ will probably stuck in range between 88 and 95, and DOW will start to gain.

Of course this would be the best scenario and I give it 40%.


From weekly point of view:
1.24 to 1.25 is a bunch of key resistance levels, so if EU will work above 1.25 way up is wide open for this pair, especially if GU retrace in a meantime, so it can gain freely.

EURJPY is in quite a bad shape now, and this may be an obstacle on a way up for Euro in general.

Gold and DOW will be for me heroes of a week, I will rather no trade them, but their behaviour is likely to trigger trend change for Euro and general market sentiment.

So still no setups, but there is certainly direction where to aim.

2010-06-24 23:49 GMT +1

Daily:

GU - pinbar down off 1.5, as I said this pair needs one more day of falls, I would give it room to 1.48 if break below 1.49

EU - last three daily bars are promising in terms of EU trend reversal. If 1.24 will be crossed tomorrow firmly I will expect 1.2670, especially if EJ will follow.

2010-06-24 15:06 GMT +1

UJ - this is tricky one, as it's not a pinbar, but I see significant support area where this pair bounced within last four hour period.
If setup for long on this pair will allow tight stop loss, I may consider trading it [if 89.60 is broken]

USDCAD - this one looks like double top on 4H chart. In other words if this pair cross 1.04 down firmly I will start to look for short.

2010-06-24 7:23 GMT +1

There is not exact setup on 4H candles, however here's my general outlook of what I expect from a market.
I will rather not trade any of these pairs right now, however would like to share what I think may happen within next few hours:

Gold - up
UJ - down
EU - up
Mini-Dow - up
AU - up
GU - look for correction, than up

2010-06-23 22:45 GMT +1

I wasn't active on my blog as I was mostly focused on new home sales release and FOMC statement.

As for today daily candle:

I will consider taking EU long tomorrow above today high, especially if in confluence with break of today EJ high.

As I said earlier I don't trust EU. However I believe that if I'm right this pair will fall overnight and will not reak mentioned level. Otherwise if it will break it - I see a chance to gain about 50 pips during London session.

2010-06-23 7:20 GMT +1

Nothing I would recommend for trading right now.

UJ - 4H pinbar I'm not going to trade...

As a daily summary:
I think GU still need to retrace, I expect another falling day this week [not necessarily tomorrow]

Euro still in bad shape - no doubt there and certainly not a single day can change it.

One of a side effects of UK budget release I think may be clear separation British economical problems from European economical problems. Therefore further plunge of euro may not be followed by fall of Pritish Pound, what so far usually was a case.

2010-06-22 15:18 GMT +1

I see return up on GU and GJ, and possible rises [but not too exciting] on CADJPY.

Certainly budget reveal in UK strongly influenced GBP performance, therefore I would first wait for some pullback on 30M chart until I would enter a trade.

I expect this pair to rise in log term, I said about at least two day of correction, what I think may be considered as happened.

I think bounce up off weekly pivot 1.4750 would be better than perfect to long [but prefect setup is required first.

If this scenario will work I expect around 75 to 100 pips II target and third part left for at least 1.4950 target.

For this trade I would use GJ and CADJPY as a confirmation.

2010-06-22 0:13 GMT +1

It looks like market breathe on back of drowning Euro.
Dow falls, but gold falls as well.
I suppose DOW will rise sometime tomorrow, as to GU and EU I think at least one more day of falls is good for them.


EU is definite pick of a day for tomorrow.

2010-06-21 16:55 GMT +1

I didn't find anything tradable.
I have general concept of what is and what may be going on, however this is one of those times, when one would rather stay away and in spite of general knowledge where market is heading wait for perfect setup.

2010-06-21 11:20 GMT +1

quite massive pinbar on GU and double top sort of pin on EU. I think I will wait for some bigger pullback until I will enter. there is 00 area on EU that may play some role, so maybe pullback to 1.2430 will work fine for me...

2010-06-21 8:45 GMT +1

I opened one long EU trade already, however closed as I was not convinced enough as to its future.

In general I would be much more convinced to trade XXXUSD short, but yet no appropriate signal showed up.

To sum up EU EJ and AU look like long setups to me, but only EU was somehow interesting as a trading pair, yet I closed this as well for few bucks loss.

weekly wrap-up

Today evening charts and started to think that it may be very right to expect euro to fall in longer run.
In general I am euro-hater in a long term [I think it's not going to stay for 80 years]
however in particular in my opinion there is nothing that important happening in Europe that would be reason strong enough to hammer eur down.
In other hand traders are not reasonable group of people and nowadays everyone would get calmer if this touchy world economic situation got resolved whatever the result. In other words it would much easier to be able to point the guilty one [like europe] than sit and have no clue what is going to happen.

Euro situation is like russian roulette, untill bullet shot, everyones' nerves on edge.

Anyway I think european socialist bankers deserve it. ;)

This week key is whether euro will work it's way above recession low [finished slightly above it on EU and EJ] if not - i see deep plunge ahead.


From daily point of view
GU shows some signs of regains, but at the moment it's in a key area of support, this may correct it's rises this week.

Will see tommorow London open.

2010-06-18 11:52 GMT +1

further falls on UJ are likely [no trading signal yet]

EJ same as UJ

USDCAD - turning up signs, not a signal yet

CADJPY same as UJ

I decided to not to trade till monday morning, but if I had to choose I would short CADJPY...

2010-06-18 7:40 GMT +1

gold - I don't feel familiar enough to real trade it, but I'll wach what would happened if shorted below 1243

EU - long above 1.2412, nice targets: 1.2452; 1.2483; 1.2519]

2010-06-17 15:20 GMT +1

AUDUSD - buy with first target @0.87

2010-06-17 10:55 GMT +1

GU - is aiming big on my 4H candle, but move was so fast that it became suspicious. Such a momentum needs some rest, so it's very likely that some minor reversal will occure on its way further up...

EU - also a big mover, can be watched for confirmation of GU

GJ - may turn out nicely too, sefinitely good to watch along with GU trading, just for confirmation...

2010-06-17 9:15 GMT +1

still nothing, but GU may be first to move and may bounce sooner or later, that would be something for me then...

2010-06-16 23:15 GMT +1

Still consolidation mode in my opinion.

2010-06-16 15:06 GMT +1

I see literally nothing on a chart. There are some moves, some breaks of candle high or candle low, but nothing I would trade off. That means time for a walk :)

2010-06-16 11:16 GMT +1

USDCAD - nice long [4 in 1-5 scale]

EDIT 11:49 GMT +1:
I need to cancel this call, overall USD weakness would not rather keep it going, pair will stuck at 00 level, why bother..?

NOthing crucial happened overnight, AUDUSD traded slightly below key level 0.8666, but today I'm sure if it touch that level it will go through. Rest is more or less the same as yesterday, however I doubt would I trade shoet euro anyway...

2010-06-15 23:55 GMT +1

EJ - turn down? If driven by JPY crosses - I will leave it, if by EUR itself, may be sign of massive move down [but not much hope for that anyway, at least this would be something worth trading]

CADJPY - there is significant rising potential, but I would not trade it on simple breakout, rather on some retracement, confluence with price action on other correlated crosses or whatsoever.

AUDUSD - my favourite puppy made it quite nicely, however I was targeting for longer move. For now I'm that certain that this pair will turn back on 0.8666, that I closed 3/4 of my position earlier, last quarter I will hold as my plan was to leave small part for 400 pips profit. I left quite wide SL on that and wait for re-entry possibilities.

2010-06-15 16:20 GMT +1

Risk appetite is a winner of last 4H candle, EU may gain another bunch of pips, but AUDUSD is my ultimate puppy on break of 0.86 up.
If this trade work out I want to leave part of it up to 0.9, yet I'm not going to trade anything else.

PS
As I'm writing this post last candle formed over an hour ago, and my AUD trade is already triggered yet not in profit.

15.06.2010 11:19 GMT +1

USDCAD - short below 1.0302 [mind double zero lvl]
CADJPY long above 88.82

June DOW futures - short below 10184 [especially if broken after NY open

14.06.2010 19:21 GMT +1

The most attractive pin is forming on Mini-Dow 4H chart [45 min till candle close].
Rest mentioned here are very average or worse ideas.

UE short - not a proper 4H setup, but confluence of 50% extetntion of last swing and lost momentum on last 4H bar compared with previous two convinces me that at least a bit of correction should be expected here. 1.2150 may be pretty good final target for this one.

UJ still in no momentum up mode with key support level to be broken @91.70

According to EU and UJ analisys EJ is good shorting pair due to bounce off 23% fib extention

USDCAD - I'm already out of this trade with some profit. It did not meet my full expectations, but trade turn out to be pretty nice anyway. This one will possibly rise further, but I didn't really got excited about this one as well as about falling

14.06.2010 GMT +1

USDCAD I shorted this pair once, but closed for 10 pips loss as price action did not convinced me, reopened on the second approach to 1.0286 level, and currently I took away partial profit, and wait for further run. Currently SL 10 points above entry, and wait to hit 1.0250 to take other part and move SL to BE.

apart of this trade i see UJ with it's very narrow range seems to reverse a bit. It's not a trade call, but it makes a good indicator in case of hesitation between USD and JPY crosses.

14.06.2010 11:20 GMT +1

USDCAD break below 1.0286 seems to be an interesting short opportunity, however resistance on CADJPY above 89.50 seems to be a serious obstacle for CAD crosses to move further.

I'm still waiting for a pullback on AUDUSD that would be the good reason to long this pair, possibly for medium term trade...

14.06.2010 9:48 GMT+1

Hi there, I woke up late, so I didn't updated today morning.
After quick chart observation AUDUSD dragged most of my attention as this pair broke above last three weeks channel, what might be valid sign of further rises of this pair.

Yet from 6am [London time] GU managed to break a bit above overnight range, but I don't see anything worth attention here yet.

11.06.2010 11:33 GMT+1

To sum up, session was not fruitfull, EU and GU went up to overnight high [without breaking it - so not buing here was hitting exactly the point of morning my snapshot.

Later I did not entered short GU [what could've been profitable, as there was UK news approaching].

Therefore I had a good day of no trading today.


Currently I see tempting short candle on GU, but it's not confirmed on any other cross [GJ or EU or whatsoever] therefore I'm going to prevent myself from trading till next 4H candle.

11.06.2010 7:54 GMT +1

I will wait for some valid sign of move down on GU or EU, as I expect a bit of corection during London open.

11.06.2010 1:49 GMT +1

GU - approaching key resistance - expect correction
EU - similar situation, but here I still did not seen confirmation of trend reversal.
Personally I think eur wont go lower than it was this week, but I need it confirmed on a chart.
EJ - slightly above this week channel. I wouldn't take long on last day of a week, however this may indicate new direction for upcoming week.
GJ is on clear way to rise. Bounce up from 133.20-133.80 area would be a perfect sign to buy and hold [maybe even 1000 pips if it was lucky]


In general I'm definitely not going to trade overnight, and I expect Friday to be day of corrections or low volatility.



For a short comment, Thursday morning trade plan mostly prevented me from trading as price went against my expectations.

10.06.2010 7:54 GMT +1

Not much to say from charts, all my sentiment got cancelled due to overnight activity [including gold]
If some perfect setup occur on 1M chart I will possibly buy GU or EU.

09.06.2010 23:42 GMT +1

GU - 4H formation points clearly down, but I'm not gonna take it during assian session.
EU - same as GU
USDCAD - points up
CADJPY - down [thatthis may be born for CAD move for tomorrow]
AUDUSD - points down as yesterday, but this time top is higher then yesterday, so I will prevent myslef from trading for tonight

09.06.2010 11:08 GMT+1

GU on upway move
UJ strategy cancelled
GJ may be further up [132.20 as I type]
Gold is it pinbar? look if goes above 1239
AU strategy cancelled

To sum up - I will long GJ or GU on perfect 1M setup, [firm cross below 132 -GJ and 1.4450 -GU cancells all]

09.06.2010 GMT+1

Still chance for GJ to rally, and my Gold plan is still valid.

GU made higher low on 4H opposing to EU, that felt even lower last week. This makes GBP crosses more attractive to long in general.

09.06.2010 0:33 GMT+1

AU - this may e reverse down now [11:30 London time] from 0.8275

GOLD 1229 level combined with weak world economy is an extremaly strong area for bounce higher

GJ - bounce-like formation - think of long

UJ - similar to GJ, but weaker somehow... here chances for rise are still strong, but first wait for break above some 30m trendline... [good strategy - enter on perfect 1M signal up - keep it up to 50% retracement of recent 4H plunge, then wait for small reversal and another buy oportunity. This strategy I may copy on GJ.

21-05-2010 2:44 GMT+1

What more should I say.
Whenever chart talks to you, just listen and act...

I made couple of nice trades on today EU run up. I was out quite quickly due to very tight stop loss.

Tomorrow I will try to take out more on longs, however I would feel much more comfortable if Asian or European session correct some of those moves.

Depreciation of gold is nice, however I would prefer to see it fighting recent bottom on daily chart [it's still quite far away, so let's give it few more days].
DJI did quite badly what alerts me a bit. If those sells will be regain shortly I will be more than happy to buy more EUR and maybe buy back into my EURPLZ trade [yet closed by SL]

19-05-2010 21:58 GMT+1

EU has just told me to buy at 50% retracement of afternoon move.
Nothing more to comment.

18-05-10 2:49 GMT+1

Pinbar on EU looks promising, I entered tiny size on EU long yet, however I'm waiting with bringing out big guns.
I set alerts for breaks of Monday highs on EU and EJ, and these are pairs I am willing to trade, however I see more interesting picks for tomorrow:

EU - long above pinbar
EJ - good for long above pinbar high
GU - I may scalp it long, but nothing to go crazy here
DJI- here rises are more reliable for me than on EUR crosses as US seems to be more stable economy than Europe [long bias]
GJ - nothing to comment, [long bias]
USDCAD - nothing I would trade here, but I think it's going to fall

16-05-2010 21:22 GMT+1

Apart of my recent euro analysis I will watch following currencies:

USD seems to rise further. As long as traders wont escape to gold.

JPY - there was massive spike on 6th of may. Two days later is a local top on all JPY crosses. I think 50% retracement betweenthose two extremes is where JPY will bounce up.

16-05-2010 12:36 GMT+1

Most of my attention is focused on euro, yet I found nothing certain in the market. I see both 1.10 as well as 1.30 for euro possible [including possible ECB intervention].

Specifically 1.30 is quite unexpected, and that's one of reasons EU can be back there.

Yet I trade small positions on breaks of previous days lows or highs, especially on EU and EJ.

What I may say for sure is that if EU wilt utrn up, it wil be very sharp move, so if anyhow I will enter long on euro, I will try to exit 1/3 quickly and leave rest for easy 500 pips gain.

13-05-2010 2:02 GMT+1

Euro did not fall today, but I saw not even hint that it's going to, so I stayed away from trading today.

What I find interesting is general strength of CAD and weakness of EUR, so I'm still prepared to short Euro on tomorrow London session [but need breaking of daily low first]

apart of tempting EURCAD short trade I find gold worth trading long as well as mini-Dow futures [but I will wait with Dow for pullback]. Yet nothing convinces me enought to leave open trade overnight. [apart of already opened short EURPLZ]

11-05-2010 23:53 GMT+1

I feel some tension to short EJ, but I feel I need some extra confirmation yet. EU seems to be oversold, GU and GJ in 30M uptrend don't help either.

USDCHF looks like nice long trade if will break tuesday high I will try to enter on pullback.

Strong Gold undermine my concept of euro recovery

12:40 GMT+1

I traded what I said. I bought EU, however after 20 minutes I decided to trade EJ.
My total performance was magnificent considering I could trade only one position due to small account [so no position management was possible].
Finally I lost 1/3 of my gains due to greediness and giving up on my trading plan.

I am still short on tiny EURPLZ contract as Polish Zloty lost terribly on Thursday-Friday panic what was totally irrational. Will possibly keep this position forever as a carry trade.

10-05-2010 01:12 GMT

With massive opening gap EU is a benchmark of nearest market sentiment.
In general if Monday's price action won't surprise us with any extraordinary movement I will trade short below Friday's high or today's low, or long above today's high.

In eneral I do believe monday will set top or bottom of this week.

I see very attractive pinbar on daily gold. Situation in europe is now unattractive, however dollar seems for me to be strong enough to not to push EU much lower. In such a circumstances I would keep all my money in gold for safety reason.

As for EURUSD I expect this pair to not to fall much lower I think tomorrow ECB rate decision will be a strong signal for traders to get rid of their short positions.

Based on pinbars on most of JPY croses I observe and general weakness of GBP on friday I set my trade below 143.22 and I believe it can fall another 100 pips or more from there.

I see 2day pinbar on UJ, I will trade with first profit below 94.77 and SL based on 30M price action.
These are levels I'm going to watch closely tomorrow:

EU
break above 1.3266
bounce down of 1.3290
break down or bounce of 1.3114

GU
break below 1.5124
bounce down of 1.5295 [significant]

EJ
break above 125.00 [significant]

I will trade short USDCAD on nearest 30M signal [lower high followed by breaking recent 30M low].
This is based on strong 3-days pinbar already broken yesterday and now hesitating. I will not trade it if yesterday's high will be broken.

Mini-Dow looks nice as well. If recent highs will be broken, I will trade it long on nice 30M signal. CADJPY with first target above 92.0

What is important here I'm also ready to trade this pair long in case it will break recent highs.

GJ - entry on bottom of previous week low [4h chart, grey line]. Price firstly ranged just below mentioned level. Then break of bottom of the range was sort of alert to enter [blue ellipse]. I managed to enter @ 141.05.

my TP was 140.55. However it was not triggered I managed to close half with 30 pips profit after I noticed how close to my TP level price just bounced back.
I moved SL for another half 5 pips above entry level, what caused me 5 pips loss on another half.

After this GJ raised 40 pips above marked level, so closing trade with small loss was definitely profitable decision.

I decided to return to my practise of making notes. My new commentaries will differ a bit.

I will mostly post levels where I expect price to turn back for 30 pips and more. I will be making trade decisions simultaneously basing on marked conditions after level was touched. Then I will post all trades I've opened, sometimes with charts and comments.

sometimes I will post interesting setups on daily chart and will describe if trade them.

In nearest future I will submit my trades on myfxbook, so you can study exact levels and times of my trades.

EU: 1.4483 is an important high of recent range, so price as it is now - above this level gives nice possibility of trading long.

GU: not as clear as EU, I would wait for this pair to break daily low or high first.

EJ: here nice upmove too. Expect rises with resistance area @ 134.50

GJ: same as GU, needs proper break of today hi/low first. 150.70 and 146.12 are nearest resistance levels.

2010-01-07 Morning session commentary

*Actually none of those trades was taken off clear and nice setup.

9:17 UJ buy @92.75
9:37 EJ buy @133.29
9:37 EU buy @1.4382
10:30 1/2EU sell @1.4371

today started with spike on JPY crosses. Market was quite messy, however on divergence between JPY pairs and USD pairs I decided to long UJ. Big mistake was to take first dip after spike, usually second is deeper, and that's what happened this time. I should prevent myself from trading at all so early after spike, but I didn't and loss on UJ was a price of it.

What was surprising, EU after plunge started to regain it's position very quickly, therefore I decided to enter this move [what I did announced on FF thread earlier]. In spite of lack of proper setup I opened EJ position as well as UJ was looking for me as it was going to appreciate, so I could make sure I won't miss the move.
As you can see on a chart at the moment of taking that second trade GU was forming higher bottom, so when I saw deep plunge on GU I decided to close EU position. I kept EJ trade open and managed to close half at +20 pips profit, accordingly to trading method, however on second half I managed to save just 6 pips.

Last trade - short EU I opened when waiting for reversal setup to unwind what didn't happened. I closed trade with + 6 and +2 pips

2010-01-07 Morning session preparation

Came a bit late, so here's short version:

EU: further shorts possible [but not trade if price trade higher or retracement [30M]

EJ: possible rise after correction.

GU: short below 1.5936

GJ: rise especially above 148.20

2010-01-06 Morning session commentary

There were two trade opportunities today.
First, when EU ran out of steam on retracemet after preopen plunge, it was around 38% level, there was short setup on both EU and EJ based on my preopen analisys. This trade however turned out to be loosing one.

Second trade was based purely on higher bottom on GU and GJ, both pair had potential of 60 pips gain, what was double success, as I expected up to 40 pips trade on GU and predicted 148 as a target price, that was taken.

2010-01-06 Morning session preparation

EU: quite unusual drop just before market open suggest further drops, however expect price to retrace to 1.4320 - 34 lvl before that. Don't trade above 34.

EJ: may be nice shorting alternative with 131.25 daily low. If broken may give next 50 pips decrease.

GU: on steady fall, it may either retrace or move sharply lower. If traded I would not expect much of a move today [30-40 pips].

GJ: this pair needs to retrace badly, so expect it today, but bare in mind that GJ is on general downtrend, so treat 148 as a possible top for today. [148.30 is 50% lvl of last 2 days move.]

2010-01- 04/05 Morning session commentary

4.01
I started with failed trade on EU, as it broken initially a bit lower with nice confirmation on GU. This trade was worth -10 pips.

Soon after SL on my EU position was hited price on both EU and GU retraced to previos levels from before 8:00am. I read it as a clear bounce of GU from daily low and decided to trade long in spite of lack of clear setup [as you can read I was expecting long trade off red support on GU that day, that's why I decided to enter early]. GU rallied initial 20 pips very quickly, and charged higher hitting my planned target for second half at daily high [+ 60 pips for second half].




5.01
This was very moody day.
My first trade was based on my market overview for EU and confirmation on EJ [-9 pips]. Unfortunately it was a looser, second was another approach to trade my prognosis, this time I bought GU [-13 pips].

2010-01-05 Morning session preparation

EU: there is channel broken up on 30M chart, great for long, especially above 1.4450. important resistance [bottom of Asian channel] @1.44 if price retrace to this area, I would wait and eventually trade short below this level.[If traded long - there is plenty of room up on daily chart]

EJ: yesterday struggled with new highs, however not potential seller yet. Strong resistance above 133.50, so beware if you trade long. Whatever direction of trade you should be careful. Reversal on daily [middle of leg up in flat channel] is possible.

GU: This pair is on a nice buy setup but 1.6240 may be limit for what it may do today, however above that level there is plenty of room to rise.

GJ: has good potential to fall 300 pips within two days and even more within two weeks. for buy signals stick with either GU or EJ.

2010-01-04 Morning session preparation

EU: Currently on it's leg down on daily, with important 1.4220 support [recent low] and in my opinion very important 1.4115 - 61% fib level, so yet I would be glad to catch short trade on it, especially below 1.4280 - this is very important line on 30M for me.

EJ - significant uptrend on this pair [on daily there is leg up on rangy pattern]. On a daily I see 9 consecutive rising candles what makes me think that retracement is possible, however I'm not convinced about entering short on short signs on EU

GU: Is very near to important support, and gives some suggestions of reversal on daily. I would be strongly short below 1.6050, and moderate long above 1.6100 [based on 30M chart]

GJ: Strong uptrend on 30 [149 is important resistance, suspend trading below this level] Daily chart looks promising as well, as there is plenty of room up to 163 level.