11-05-2010 23:53 GMT+1

I feel some tension to short EJ, but I feel I need some extra confirmation yet. EU seems to be oversold, GU and GJ in 30M uptrend don't help either.

USDCHF looks like nice long trade if will break tuesday high I will try to enter on pullback.

Strong Gold undermine my concept of euro recovery

12:40 GMT+1

I traded what I said. I bought EU, however after 20 minutes I decided to trade EJ.
My total performance was magnificent considering I could trade only one position due to small account [so no position management was possible].
Finally I lost 1/3 of my gains due to greediness and giving up on my trading plan.

I am still short on tiny EURPLZ contract as Polish Zloty lost terribly on Thursday-Friday panic what was totally irrational. Will possibly keep this position forever as a carry trade.

10-05-2010 01:12 GMT

With massive opening gap EU is a benchmark of nearest market sentiment.
In general if Monday's price action won't surprise us with any extraordinary movement I will trade short below Friday's high or today's low, or long above today's high.

In eneral I do believe monday will set top or bottom of this week.

I see very attractive pinbar on daily gold. Situation in europe is now unattractive, however dollar seems for me to be strong enough to not to push EU much lower. In such a circumstances I would keep all my money in gold for safety reason.

As for EURUSD I expect this pair to not to fall much lower I think tomorrow ECB rate decision will be a strong signal for traders to get rid of their short positions.

Based on pinbars on most of JPY croses I observe and general weakness of GBP on friday I set my trade below 143.22 and I believe it can fall another 100 pips or more from there.

I see 2day pinbar on UJ, I will trade with first profit below 94.77 and SL based on 30M price action.
These are levels I'm going to watch closely tomorrow:

EU
break above 1.3266
bounce down of 1.3290
break down or bounce of 1.3114

GU
break below 1.5124
bounce down of 1.5295 [significant]

EJ
break above 125.00 [significant]

I will trade short USDCAD on nearest 30M signal [lower high followed by breaking recent 30M low].
This is based on strong 3-days pinbar already broken yesterday and now hesitating. I will not trade it if yesterday's high will be broken.

Mini-Dow looks nice as well. If recent highs will be broken, I will trade it long on nice 30M signal. CADJPY with first target above 92.0

What is important here I'm also ready to trade this pair long in case it will break recent highs.

GJ - entry on bottom of previous week low [4h chart, grey line]. Price firstly ranged just below mentioned level. Then break of bottom of the range was sort of alert to enter [blue ellipse]. I managed to enter @ 141.05.

my TP was 140.55. However it was not triggered I managed to close half with 30 pips profit after I noticed how close to my TP level price just bounced back.
I moved SL for another half 5 pips above entry level, what caused me 5 pips loss on another half.

After this GJ raised 40 pips above marked level, so closing trade with small loss was definitely profitable decision.

I decided to return to my practise of making notes. My new commentaries will differ a bit.

I will mostly post levels where I expect price to turn back for 30 pips and more. I will be making trade decisions simultaneously basing on marked conditions after level was touched. Then I will post all trades I've opened, sometimes with charts and comments.

sometimes I will post interesting setups on daily chart and will describe if trade them.

In nearest future I will submit my trades on myfxbook, so you can study exact levels and times of my trades.

EU: 1.4483 is an important high of recent range, so price as it is now - above this level gives nice possibility of trading long.

GU: not as clear as EU, I would wait for this pair to break daily low or high first.

EJ: here nice upmove too. Expect rises with resistance area @ 134.50

GJ: same as GU, needs proper break of today hi/low first. 150.70 and 146.12 are nearest resistance levels.

2010-01-07 Morning session commentary

*Actually none of those trades was taken off clear and nice setup.

9:17 UJ buy @92.75
9:37 EJ buy @133.29
9:37 EU buy @1.4382
10:30 1/2EU sell @1.4371

today started with spike on JPY crosses. Market was quite messy, however on divergence between JPY pairs and USD pairs I decided to long UJ. Big mistake was to take first dip after spike, usually second is deeper, and that's what happened this time. I should prevent myself from trading at all so early after spike, but I didn't and loss on UJ was a price of it.

What was surprising, EU after plunge started to regain it's position very quickly, therefore I decided to enter this move [what I did announced on FF thread earlier]. In spite of lack of proper setup I opened EJ position as well as UJ was looking for me as it was going to appreciate, so I could make sure I won't miss the move.
As you can see on a chart at the moment of taking that second trade GU was forming higher bottom, so when I saw deep plunge on GU I decided to close EU position. I kept EJ trade open and managed to close half at +20 pips profit, accordingly to trading method, however on second half I managed to save just 6 pips.

Last trade - short EU I opened when waiting for reversal setup to unwind what didn't happened. I closed trade with + 6 and +2 pips

2010-01-07 Morning session preparation

Came a bit late, so here's short version:

EU: further shorts possible [but not trade if price trade higher or retracement [30M]

EJ: possible rise after correction.

GU: short below 1.5936

GJ: rise especially above 148.20

2010-01-06 Morning session commentary

There were two trade opportunities today.
First, when EU ran out of steam on retracemet after preopen plunge, it was around 38% level, there was short setup on both EU and EJ based on my preopen analisys. This trade however turned out to be loosing one.

Second trade was based purely on higher bottom on GU and GJ, both pair had potential of 60 pips gain, what was double success, as I expected up to 40 pips trade on GU and predicted 148 as a target price, that was taken.

2010-01-06 Morning session preparation

EU: quite unusual drop just before market open suggest further drops, however expect price to retrace to 1.4320 - 34 lvl before that. Don't trade above 34.

EJ: may be nice shorting alternative with 131.25 daily low. If broken may give next 50 pips decrease.

GU: on steady fall, it may either retrace or move sharply lower. If traded I would not expect much of a move today [30-40 pips].

GJ: this pair needs to retrace badly, so expect it today, but bare in mind that GJ is on general downtrend, so treat 148 as a possible top for today. [148.30 is 50% lvl of last 2 days move.]

2010-01- 04/05 Morning session commentary

4.01
I started with failed trade on EU, as it broken initially a bit lower with nice confirmation on GU. This trade was worth -10 pips.

Soon after SL on my EU position was hited price on both EU and GU retraced to previos levels from before 8:00am. I read it as a clear bounce of GU from daily low and decided to trade long in spite of lack of clear setup [as you can read I was expecting long trade off red support on GU that day, that's why I decided to enter early]. GU rallied initial 20 pips very quickly, and charged higher hitting my planned target for second half at daily high [+ 60 pips for second half].




5.01
This was very moody day.
My first trade was based on my market overview for EU and confirmation on EJ [-9 pips]. Unfortunately it was a looser, second was another approach to trade my prognosis, this time I bought GU [-13 pips].

2010-01-05 Morning session preparation

EU: there is channel broken up on 30M chart, great for long, especially above 1.4450. important resistance [bottom of Asian channel] @1.44 if price retrace to this area, I would wait and eventually trade short below this level.[If traded long - there is plenty of room up on daily chart]

EJ: yesterday struggled with new highs, however not potential seller yet. Strong resistance above 133.50, so beware if you trade long. Whatever direction of trade you should be careful. Reversal on daily [middle of leg up in flat channel] is possible.

GU: This pair is on a nice buy setup but 1.6240 may be limit for what it may do today, however above that level there is plenty of room to rise.

GJ: has good potential to fall 300 pips within two days and even more within two weeks. for buy signals stick with either GU or EJ.

2010-01-04 Morning session preparation

EU: Currently on it's leg down on daily, with important 1.4220 support [recent low] and in my opinion very important 1.4115 - 61% fib level, so yet I would be glad to catch short trade on it, especially below 1.4280 - this is very important line on 30M for me.

EJ - significant uptrend on this pair [on daily there is leg up on rangy pattern]. On a daily I see 9 consecutive rising candles what makes me think that retracement is possible, however I'm not convinced about entering short on short signs on EU

GU: Is very near to important support, and gives some suggestions of reversal on daily. I would be strongly short below 1.6050, and moderate long above 1.6100 [based on 30M chart]

GJ: Strong uptrend on 30 [149 is important resistance, suspend trading below this level] Daily chart looks promising as well, as there is plenty of room up to 163 level.

I don't expect German ZEW to move the market. What can possibly happen here is that this data would trigger a bigger move [but obviously no price action will be caused by data, it's rather traders waiting for data to do whatever they wanted to anyway]. Additionally I do believe that big move can happen only in trend direction, so worse than expected data will keep me away from market. If data was better than expected I will wait for some small retracement on 1M chart [even if initial move will be down].

If EU price break below current 30M range low 1.4950 I would cancel all actions planed.

All FX services I use [dailyFX, forexpeacearmy, blackswantrading, fxbootcamp] yeld USD turnaround.
I can't agree or disagree with any of their statements, what I'm focused on is when to say "stop, we're wrong".
Another USD plunge today didn't prove anything, just brought a bit of confusion.

I will be definitely focused on Aussie interest rate tonight, before just in half an hour there is UK Services PMI released.
For this news I'm in general biased short, so worse than expected data would be much more promising for me.
Best point for entering short would be 1.5975 - it's 50% fib level for last hour plunge [between 8:00 and 9:30 GMT+1], this might be important resistance in case of better than expected data.

Whatever initial spike will be, it's very likely that it will turn back to 50% between top or bottom of spike and pre-release price, and that's the level where I'm keen to enter [either short if initial spike was down or long if it was both up AND data was better than expected].

It may happen especially if data was better, that spike will go up, but price will back to pre-release and go lower [pre-release will be my SL] in this case I would re-enter on 50% fib between highest price of the spike and lowest after break below pre-release price.